Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba as supreme leader in early March. Mojtaba has since maintained a low profile while recovering from severe injuries sustained in the same attacks, delegating authority amid reports of interim council involvement and growing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence. Ongoing regional tensions, limited public visibility, and questions over effective control continue to shape assessments of regime stability through year-end deadlines. The Assembly of Experts retains formal authority over any future transition, with developments in diplomacy or conflict escalation remaining key variables.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,978,030 交易量
2026-06-30
6月30日
5%
12月31日
28%
$15,978,030 交易量
6月30日
$1,723,364 交易量
5%
12月31日
$2,647,065 交易量
28%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba as supreme leader in early March. Mojtaba has since maintained a low profile while recovering from severe injuries sustained in the same attacks, delegating authority amid reports of interim council involvement and growing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence. Ongoing regional tensions, limited public visibility, and questions over effective control continue to shape assessments of regime stability through year-end deadlines. The Assembly of Experts retains formal authority over any future transition, with developments in diplomacy or conflict escalation remaining key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
交易量
$15,978,030结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba as supreme leader in early March. Mojtaba has since maintained a low profile while recovering from severe injuries sustained in the same attacks, delegating authority amid reports of interim council involvement and growing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence. Ongoing regional tensions, limited public visibility, and questions over effective control continue to shape assessments of regime stability through year-end deadlines. The Assembly of Experts retains formal authority over any future transition, with developments in diplomacy or conflict escalation remaining key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$15,978,030结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ali Khamenei's assassination in late February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered Iran's constitutional succession process, with the Assembly of Experts electing his son Mojtaba as supreme leader in early March. Mojtaba has since maintained a low profile while recovering from severe injuries sustained in the same attacks, delegating authority amid reports of interim council involvement and growing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence. Ongoing regional tensions, limited public visibility, and questions over effective control continue to shape assessments of regime stability through year-end deadlines. The Assembly of Experts retains formal authority over any future transition, with developments in diplomacy or conflict escalation remaining key variables.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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