Israel's upcoming Knesset election, accelerated by the parliament's May 2026 dissolution vote amid coalition tensions over ultra-Orthodox military draft exemptions, occurs in a fragmented landscape where polling shows Likud, the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, and smaller religious and right-wing parties each projected below 30 seats. Traders assign the 65.5% probability to No because Israel's electoral system has produced workable coalitions through post-election bargaining in every prior contest despite similar fragmentation, with no bloc historically securing an outright majority of 61 seats. The timeline to late October leaves room for further shifts in alliances or turnout among key factions before any potential deadlock.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-10-27
最新
最新
2026-10-27
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's upcoming Knesset election, accelerated by the parliament's May 2026 dissolution vote amid coalition tensions over ultra-Orthodox military draft exemptions, occurs in a fragmented landscape where polling shows Likud, the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, and smaller religious and right-wing parties each projected below 30 seats. Traders assign the 65.5% probability to No because Israel's electoral system has produced workable coalitions through post-election bargaining in every prior contest despite similar fragmentation, with no bloc historically securing an outright majority of 61 seats. The timeline to late October leaves room for further shifts in alliances or turnout among key factions before any potential deadlock.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ET
交易量
$258结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel's upcoming Knesset election, accelerated by the parliament's May 2026 dissolution vote amid coalition tensions over ultra-Orthodox military draft exemptions, occurs in a fragmented landscape where polling shows Likud, the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, and smaller religious and right-wing parties each projected below 30 seats. Traders assign the 65.5% probability to No because Israel's electoral system has produced workable coalitions through post-election bargaining in every prior contest despite similar fragmentation, with no bloc historically securing an outright majority of 61 seats. The timeline to late October leaves room for further shifts in alliances or turnout among key factions before any potential deadlock.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel in 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, following the next election for the Israeli Knesset, a new Knesset election is called prior to any government being formed. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Government formation refers to a political coalition or government being approved by an investiture vote of the Knesset.
An election will be considered called if the Knesset is dissolved, or if a new Knesset election is otherwise officially announced by the Israeli government.
If a government is formed following the election before a new Knesset election is called, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The failure of a government formation attempt will not alone qualify if no new Knesset election has been called.
If neither occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$258结束日期
2026-10-27市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:30 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's upcoming Knesset election, accelerated by the parliament's May 2026 dissolution vote amid coalition tensions over ultra-Orthodox military draft exemptions, occurs in a fragmented landscape where polling shows Likud, the Bennett-Lapid Together alliance, and smaller religious and right-wing parties each projected below 30 seats. Traders assign the 65.5% probability to No because Israel's electoral system has produced workable coalitions through post-election bargaining in every prior contest despite similar fragmentation, with no bloc historically securing an outright majority of 61 seats. The timeline to late October leaves room for further shifts in alliances or turnout among key factions before any potential deadlock.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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