Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026, reflecting the cartel’s sustained operational momentum. Core members including Saudi Arabia continue coordinating voluntary production adjustments, with the latest 188,000 barrels-per-day hike implemented in June 2026 and further meetings scheduled through mid-year. This ongoing quota management and market-stability mandate demonstrate institutional resilience following the UAE’s May 2026 exit, which trimmed membership but left eleven nations actively engaged. While additional departures or escalated geopolitical tensions in the Gulf could pressure cohesion, historical precedent and shared incentives around oil-price support make full dissolution improbable absent a fundamental realignment of producer interests.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$28,802 交易量
$28,802 交易量
2026-12-31
$28,802 交易量
$28,802 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026, reflecting the cartel’s sustained operational momentum. Core members including Saudi Arabia continue coordinating voluntary production adjustments, with the latest 188,000 barrels-per-day hike implemented in June 2026 and further meetings scheduled through mid-year. This ongoing quota management and market-stability mandate demonstrate institutional resilience following the UAE’s May 2026 exit, which trimmed membership but left eleven nations actively engaged. While additional departures or escalated geopolitical tensions in the Gulf could pressure cohesion, historical precedent and shared incentives around oil-price support make full dissolution improbable absent a fundamental realignment of producer interests.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$28,802结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026, reflecting the cartel’s sustained operational momentum. Core members including Saudi Arabia continue coordinating voluntary production adjustments, with the latest 188,000 barrels-per-day hike implemented in June 2026 and further meetings scheduled through mid-year. This ongoing quota management and market-stability mandate demonstrate institutional resilience following the UAE’s May 2026 exit, which trimmed membership but left eleven nations actively engaged. While additional departures or escalated geopolitical tensions in the Gulf could pressure cohesion, historical precedent and shared incentives around oil-price support make full dissolution improbable absent a fundamental realignment of producer interests.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,802结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve by year-end 2026, reflecting the cartel’s sustained operational momentum. Core members including Saudi Arabia continue coordinating voluntary production adjustments, with the latest 188,000 barrels-per-day hike implemented in June 2026 and further meetings scheduled through mid-year. This ongoing quota management and market-stability mandate demonstrate institutional resilience following the UAE’s May 2026 exit, which trimmed membership but left eleven nations actively engaged. While additional departures or escalated geopolitical tensions in the Gulf could pressure cohesion, historical precedent and shared incentives around oil-price support make full dissolution improbable absent a fundamental realignment of producer interests.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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