The absence of any retirement announcements or health-related signals from the Supreme Court’s oldest members—Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito—underpins the trader consensus favoring no vacancy in 2026. Both justices, now in their mid-to-late seventies and approaching the historical average retirement age near 80, have indicated plans to remain on the bench, with Alito hiring law clerks for the 2026-2027 term. President Trump has publicly expressed support for their continued service. While midterm elections introduce longer-term uncertainty over Senate dynamics, the lack of confirmed departures or procedural triggers this year keeps the probability of a vacancy below 40 percent in current pricing.