President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling AKP has formed an internal commission and, in May 2025, appointed a team of ten legal experts to prepare a draft, while labeling 2026 a “year of reform.” Despite these steps, advancing a new constitution or referendum requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, a threshold the AKP-MHP bloc has not yet reached even after limited defections from opposition ranks. Opposition parties remain divided on core provisions, and statements from Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç have emphasized the need for broader consensus. Recent efforts to resolve the PKK conflict are viewed by some as an attempt to secure Kurdish parliamentary support, yet no breakthrough sufficient to clear the procedural hurdle has materialized. Traders therefore assign an 83.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling AKP has formed an internal commission and, in May 2025, appointed a team of ten legal experts to prepare a draft, while labeling 2026 a “year of reform.” Despite these steps, advancing a new constitution or referendum requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, a threshold the AKP-MHP bloc has not yet reached even after limited defections from opposition ranks. Opposition parties remain divided on core provisions, and statements from Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç have emphasized the need for broader consensus. Recent efforts to resolve the PKK conflict are viewed by some as an attempt to secure Kurdish parliamentary support, yet no breakthrough sufficient to clear the procedural hurdle has materialized. Traders therefore assign an 83.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$4,027结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling AKP has formed an internal commission and, in May 2025, appointed a team of ten legal experts to prepare a draft, while labeling 2026 a “year of reform.” Despite these steps, advancing a new constitution or referendum requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, a threshold the AKP-MHP bloc has not yet reached even after limited defections from opposition ranks. Opposition parties remain divided on core provisions, and statements from Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç have emphasized the need for broader consensus. Recent efforts to resolve the PKK conflict are viewed by some as an attempt to secure Kurdish parliamentary support, yet no breakthrough sufficient to clear the procedural hurdle has materialized. Traders therefore assign an 83.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,027结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling AKP has formed an internal commission and, in May 2025, appointed a team of ten legal experts to prepare a draft, while labeling 2026 a “year of reform.” Despite these steps, advancing a new constitution or referendum requires at least 360 votes in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly, a threshold the AKP-MHP bloc has not yet reached even after limited defections from opposition ranks. Opposition parties remain divided on core provisions, and statements from Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunç have emphasized the need for broader consensus. Recent efforts to resolve the PKK conflict are viewed by some as an attempt to secure Kurdish parliamentary support, yet no breakthrough sufficient to clear the procedural hurdle has materialized. Traders therefore assign an 83.5 percent probability that no referendum will be formally announced before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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