Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting stalled high-level progress after the April 2026 ceasefire and failed Islamabad talks. Pakistan leads location odds due to its mediation of the April ceasefire, hosting of direct US-Iran sessions in Islamabad, and continued involvement in follow-on proposals addressing the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Qatar ranks next following late-May negotiator-level meetings in Doha that produced a tentative memorandum on ceasefire extension and structured nuclear discussions, though final approval remains pending. Earlier venues such as Oman and Switzerland hosted prior indirect rounds but show lower current positioning amid the shift to Pakistan- and Qatar-mediated channels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于截至6月30日未举行会谈 48.9%
巴基斯坦 36.1%
卡塔尔 5.5%
瑞士 2.5%
$7,866,210 交易量
$7,866,210 交易量
2026-06-30
截至6月30日未举行会谈
49%
巴基斯坦
36%
卡塔尔
5%
瑞士
3%
美国
2%
其他
1%
阿曼
1%
奥地利
1%
土耳其
1%
埃及
<1%
俄罗斯
<1%
其他 - 欧洲
<1%
伊朗
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
其他 - 中东/北非
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
哈萨克斯坦
<1%
阿联酋
<1%
意大利
<1%
截至6月30日未举行会谈 48.9%
巴基斯坦 36.1%
卡塔尔 5.5%
瑞士 2.5%
$7,866,210 交易量
$7,866,210 交易量
2026-06-30
截至6月30日未举行会谈
$1,079,767 交易量
49%
巴基斯坦
$1,057,958 交易量
36%
卡塔尔
$416,306 交易量
5%
瑞士
$372,939 交易量
3%
美国
$292,289 交易量
2%
其他
$310,706 交易量
1%
阿曼
$347,897 交易量
1%
奥地利
$247,831 交易量
1%
土耳其
$352,919 交易量
1%
埃及
$249,385 交易量
<1%
俄罗斯
$233,603 交易量
<1%
其他 - 欧洲
$304,869 交易量
<1%
伊朗
$861,024 交易量
<1%
伊拉克
$798,586 交易量
<1%
其他 - 中东/北非
$236,767 交易量
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
$265,415 交易量
<1%
哈萨克斯坦
$106,866 交易量
<1%
阿联酋
$182,378 交易量
<1%
意大利
$148,709 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting stalled high-level progress after the April 2026 ceasefire and failed Islamabad talks. Pakistan leads location odds due to its mediation of the April ceasefire, hosting of direct US-Iran sessions in Islamabad, and continued involvement in follow-on proposals addressing the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Qatar ranks next following late-May negotiator-level meetings in Doha that produced a tentative memorandum on ceasefire extension and structured nuclear discussions, though final approval remains pending. Earlier venues such as Oman and Switzerland hosted prior indirect rounds but show lower current positioning amid the shift to Pakistan- and Qatar-mediated channels.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
交易量
$7,866,210结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting stalled high-level progress after the April 2026 ceasefire and failed Islamabad talks. Pakistan leads location odds due to its mediation of the April ceasefire, hosting of direct US-Iran sessions in Islamabad, and continued involvement in follow-on proposals addressing the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Qatar ranks next following late-May negotiator-level meetings in Doha that produced a tentative memorandum on ceasefire extension and structured nuclear discussions, though final approval remains pending. Earlier venues such as Oman and Switzerland hosted prior indirect rounds but show lower current positioning amid the shift to Pakistan- and Qatar-mediated channels.
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$7,866,210结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 12, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns the highest probability to no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, reflecting stalled high-level progress after the April 2026 ceasefire and failed Islamabad talks. Pakistan leads location odds due to its mediation of the April ceasefire, hosting of direct US-Iran sessions in Islamabad, and continued involvement in follow-on proposals addressing the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues. Qatar ranks next following late-May negotiator-level meetings in Doha that produced a tentative memorandum on ceasefire extension and structured nuclear discussions, though final approval remains pending. Earlier venues such as Oman and Switzerland hosted prior indirect rounds but show lower current positioning amid the shift to Pakistan- and Qatar-mediated channels.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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