Aaron Rodgers’ recent one-year contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers and his explicit confirmation that the 2026 season will be his final NFL campaign underpin the 95.7% implied probability that he will not retire before next season. The 42-year-old quarterback, a four-time MVP entering his 22nd year, signed the deal worth up to $25 million with significant guarantees just ahead of organized team activities and publicly stated “this is it” during a May press conference. Traders view the skin-in-the-game commitment as strong evidence of his intent to complete the season under head coach Mike McCarthy. While a major injury or sudden shift in plans before training camp could theoretically alter the outcome, the current roster status and direct statements leave little room for doubt among market participants.