Iran's early qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup through Asian qualifiers established a strong baseline for participation. Recent official statements from the Iranian Football Federation in May 2026 confirmed the team's intent to compete without withdrawal, while outlining demands for visa guarantees and other accommodations from FIFA and hosts. FIFA's approval of a training camp relocation to Mexico addressed key logistical concerns tied to U.S. venues. Ongoing preparations, including scheduled camps ahead of the June tournament start, have reinforced expectations. These factors, combined with the absence of formal exclusion processes, underpin the 95% implied probability reflected in current trader consensus on participation.