**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30-31 meeting, reflecting trader consensus that a 25 basis point hike to 1.0% is likely at the June 15-16 gathering followed by a pause for data evaluation.** Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from Middle East tensions, upward revisions to the FY2026 core CPI outlook, and resilient first-quarter GDP growth have reinforced expectations for gradual normalization from the current 0.75% policy rate. Recent Reuters economist surveys showing roughly two-thirds forecasting a June move, combined with board-member hawkish commentary on wage-price dynamics, underpin the elevated probability of stability in July as the BoJ monitors transmission effects. Key upcoming catalysts include the June decision outcome, May inflation readings, and any shifts in yen volatility ahead of the July meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No change 73%
25 bps increase 31%
50+ bps increase 3.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
最新
最新
2026-07-31
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
30%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 73%
25 bps increase 31%
50+ bps increase 3.2%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
最新
最新
2026-07-31
50+ bps decrease
$485 交易量
1%
25 bps decrease
$362 交易量
1%
No change
$110 交易量
73%
25 bps increase
$136 交易量
30%
50+ bps increase
$161 交易量
3%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30-31 meeting, reflecting trader consensus that a 25 basis point hike to 1.0% is likely at the June 15-16 gathering followed by a pause for data evaluation.** Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from Middle East tensions, upward revisions to the FY2026 core CPI outlook, and resilient first-quarter GDP growth have reinforced expectations for gradual normalization from the current 0.75% policy rate. Recent Reuters economist surveys showing roughly two-thirds forecasting a June move, combined with board-member hawkish commentary on wage-price dynamics, underpin the elevated probability of stability in July as the BoJ monitors transmission effects. Key upcoming catalysts include the June decision outcome, May inflation readings, and any shifts in yen volatility ahead of the July meeting.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
交易量
$1,254结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30-31 meeting, reflecting trader consensus that a 25 basis point hike to 1.0% is likely at the June 15-16 gathering followed by a pause for data evaluation.** Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from Middle East tensions, upward revisions to the FY2026 core CPI outlook, and resilient first-quarter GDP growth have reinforced expectations for gradual normalization from the current 0.75% policy rate. Recent Reuters economist surveys showing roughly two-thirds forecasting a June move, combined with board-member hawkish commentary on wage-price dynamics, underpin the elevated probability of stability in July as the BoJ monitors transmission effects. Key upcoming catalysts include the June decision outcome, May inflation readings, and any shifts in yen volatility ahead of the July meeting.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$1,254结束日期
2026-07-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds heavily favor no change at the Bank of Japan’s July 30-31 meeting, reflecting trader consensus that a 25 basis point hike to 1.0% is likely at the June 15-16 gathering followed by a pause for data evaluation.** Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from Middle East tensions, upward revisions to the FY2026 core CPI outlook, and resilient first-quarter GDP growth have reinforced expectations for gradual normalization from the current 0.75% policy rate. Recent Reuters economist surveys showing roughly two-thirds forecasting a June move, combined with board-member hawkish commentary on wage-price dynamics, underpin the elevated probability of stability in July as the BoJ monitors transmission effects. Key upcoming catalysts include the June decision outcome, May inflation readings, and any shifts in yen volatility ahead of the July meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题