Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the overnight interbank rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, coupled with explicit guidance that the move concludes the easing cycle begun in March 2024, underpins the 74 percent market-implied probability of no change at the August 6 meeting. Headline inflation eased to 4.45 percent in April while core inflation fell to 4.26 percent, yet both remain above the 3 percent target, with the central bank projecting convergence only in the second quarter of 2027. First-quarter economic contraction widened output slack and tempered demand-side pressures, supporting the pause despite upward revisions to near-term inflation forecasts from higher non-core prices. Traders view the current stance as calibrated to balance persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with the June 25 decision serving as the next key data point before August.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No change 74%
25 bps decrease 20%
50+ bps increase 4.1%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
最新
最新
2026-08-06
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
74%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
4%
No change 74%
25 bps decrease 20%
50+ bps increase 4.1%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
最新
最新
2026-08-06
50+ bps decrease
$56 交易量
4%
25 bps decrease
$38 交易量
16%
No change
$6,230 交易量
74%
25 bps increase
$81 交易量
40%
50+ bps increase
$49 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the overnight interbank rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, coupled with explicit guidance that the move concludes the easing cycle begun in March 2024, underpins the 74 percent market-implied probability of no change at the August 6 meeting. Headline inflation eased to 4.45 percent in April while core inflation fell to 4.26 percent, yet both remain above the 3 percent target, with the central bank projecting convergence only in the second quarter of 2027. First-quarter economic contraction widened output slack and tempered demand-side pressures, supporting the pause despite upward revisions to near-term inflation forecasts from higher non-core prices. Traders view the current stance as calibrated to balance persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with the June 25 decision serving as the next key data point before August.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 10:42 AM ET
交易量
$6,454结束日期
2026-08-06市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the overnight interbank rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, coupled with explicit guidance that the move concludes the easing cycle begun in March 2024, underpins the 74 percent market-implied probability of no change at the August 6 meeting. Headline inflation eased to 4.45 percent in April while core inflation fell to 4.26 percent, yet both remain above the 3 percent target, with the central bank projecting convergence only in the second quarter of 2027. First-quarter economic contraction widened output slack and tempered demand-side pressures, supporting the pause despite upward revisions to near-term inflation forecasts from higher non-core prices. Traders view the current stance as calibrated to balance persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with the June 25 decision serving as the next key data point before August.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 6, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
交易量
$6,454结束日期
2026-08-06市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 10:42 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Banxico’s May 7 decision to cut the overnight interbank rate 25 basis points to 6.50 percent, coupled with explicit guidance that the move concludes the easing cycle begun in March 2024, underpins the 74 percent market-implied probability of no change at the August 6 meeting. Headline inflation eased to 4.45 percent in April while core inflation fell to 4.26 percent, yet both remain above the 3 percent target, with the central bank projecting convergence only in the second quarter of 2027. First-quarter economic contraction widened output slack and tempered demand-side pressures, supporting the pause despite upward revisions to near-term inflation forecasts from higher non-core prices. Traders view the current stance as calibrated to balance persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties, with the June 25 decision serving as the next key data point before August.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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