Despite repeated low-level maritime confrontations in the South China Sea involving water cannons, rammings, and aerial maneuvers near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal through early 2026, China and the Philippines have sustained diplomatic channels, including March 2026 bilateral consultations that advanced coast guard communications and confidence-building measures. Manila’s strengthened U.S. security ties and joint exercises provide deterrence, while both governments have signaled interest in managing tensions amid ASEAN chairmanship and economic considerations. Recent incidents, such as the August 2025 near-collision at Scarborough Shoal, were contained without escalation to armed naval engagement. These dynamics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability assigned to no military clash before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$470,554 交易量
$470,554 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$470,554 交易量
$470,554 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite repeated low-level maritime confrontations in the South China Sea involving water cannons, rammings, and aerial maneuvers near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal through early 2026, China and the Philippines have sustained diplomatic channels, including March 2026 bilateral consultations that advanced coast guard communications and confidence-building measures. Manila’s strengthened U.S. security ties and joint exercises provide deterrence, while both governments have signaled interest in managing tensions amid ASEAN chairmanship and economic considerations. Recent incidents, such as the August 2025 near-collision at Scarborough Shoal, were contained without escalation to armed naval engagement. These dynamics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability assigned to no military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
交易量
$470,554结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite repeated low-level maritime confrontations in the South China Sea involving water cannons, rammings, and aerial maneuvers near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal through early 2026, China and the Philippines have sustained diplomatic channels, including March 2026 bilateral consultations that advanced coast guard communications and confidence-building measures. Manila’s strengthened U.S. security ties and joint exercises provide deterrence, while both governments have signaled interest in managing tensions amid ASEAN chairmanship and economic considerations. Recent incidents, such as the August 2025 near-collision at Scarborough Shoal, were contained without escalation to armed naval engagement. These dynamics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability assigned to no military clash before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$470,554结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite repeated low-level maritime confrontations in the South China Sea involving water cannons, rammings, and aerial maneuvers near Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal through early 2026, China and the Philippines have sustained diplomatic channels, including March 2026 bilateral consultations that advanced coast guard communications and confidence-building measures. Manila’s strengthened U.S. security ties and joint exercises provide deterrence, while both governments have signaled interest in managing tensions amid ASEAN chairmanship and economic considerations. Recent incidents, such as the August 2025 near-collision at Scarborough Shoal, were contained without escalation to armed naval engagement. These dynamics underpin trader consensus reflected in the 79.5% probability assigned to no military clash before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题