Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization and U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for military unification. Recent developments show continued preference for gray-zone coercion, including coast-guard incursions near outlying islands in May 2026, diplomatic pressure on Taiwan’s international participation, and selective resumption of cross-strait economic links following the Kuomintang leader’s April meeting with Xi Jinping. These calibrated measures align with historical patterns of avoiding high-risk direct conflict while building leverage ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. The market consensus could shift only under unforeseen triggers such as rapid escalation from a major incident, sudden U.S. policy reversal, or internal Chinese leadership decisions altering risk calculations within the narrow remaining window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$9,460,006 交易量
$9,460,006 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$9,460,006 交易量
$9,460,006 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization and U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for military unification. Recent developments show continued preference for gray-zone coercion, including coast-guard incursions near outlying islands in May 2026, diplomatic pressure on Taiwan’s international participation, and selective resumption of cross-strait economic links following the Kuomintang leader’s April meeting with Xi Jinping. These calibrated measures align with historical patterns of avoiding high-risk direct conflict while building leverage ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. The market consensus could shift only under unforeseen triggers such as rapid escalation from a major incident, sudden U.S. policy reversal, or internal Chinese leadership decisions altering risk calculations within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ET
交易量
$9,460,006结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization and U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for military unification. Recent developments show continued preference for gray-zone coercion, including coast-guard incursions near outlying islands in May 2026, diplomatic pressure on Taiwan’s international participation, and selective resumption of cross-strait economic links following the Kuomintang leader’s April meeting with Xi Jinping. These calibrated measures align with historical patterns of avoiding high-risk direct conflict while building leverage ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. The market consensus could shift only under unforeseen triggers such as rapid escalation from a major incident, sudden U.S. policy reversal, or internal Chinese leadership decisions altering risk calculations within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$9,460,090结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.2% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization and U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline or current plan for military unification. Recent developments show continued preference for gray-zone coercion, including coast-guard incursions near outlying islands in May 2026, diplomatic pressure on Taiwan’s international participation, and selective resumption of cross-strait economic links following the Kuomintang leader’s April meeting with Xi Jinping. These calibrated measures align with historical patterns of avoiding high-risk direct conflict while building leverage ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. The market consensus could shift only under unforeseen triggers such as rapid escalation from a major incident, sudden U.S. policy reversal, or internal Chinese leadership decisions altering risk calculations within the narrow remaining window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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