The April 2026 trade sending Dexter Lawrence from the Giants to the Bengals in exchange for the No. 10 overall draft pick, followed immediately by his one-year, $28 million extension through 2028, has locked in Cincinnati as the near-certain landing spot. Lawrence’s impasse with New York over a new deal prompted his trade request and accelerated the move, allowing the Bengals to add a three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle to bolster their interior line ahead of the season. The 92% implied probability reflects this completed transaction and Lawrence’s active roster status in Cincinnati. While a release, major injury, or contract dispute before Week 1 could theoretically shift outcomes, the current structure and timing make such developments highly unlikely.