Traders assign the highest implied probability (57.5%) to no model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current frontier large language models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google sit clustered between roughly 1500 and 1506 following spring 2026 releases such as GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Incremental gains on agentic workflows, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, and multimodal capabilities have narrowed gaps without delivering the larger capability jumps needed to clear the threshold before year-end. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds (33.0%) on the back of its recent Opus series consistently matching or slightly exceeding rivals on reasoning and long-context tasks, while Google (7.5%) and OpenAI (2.8%) trail amid similar incremental updates. The compressed timeline to resolution and historical patterns of gradual Elo progression reinforce the market’s caution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年无人达到 57%
Anthropic 33%
谷歌 7%
OpenAI 2.8%
$73,503 交易量
$73,503 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年无人达到
57%
Anthropic
33%
谷歌
7%
OpenAI
3%
xAI
2%
Mistral
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
2026年无人达到 57%
Anthropic 33%
谷歌 7%
OpenAI 2.8%
$73,503 交易量
$73,503 交易量
2026-12-31
2026年无人达到
$16,585 交易量
57%
Anthropic
$9,108 交易量
33%
谷歌
$8,943 交易量
7%
OpenAI
$9,651 交易量
3%
xAI
$6,363 交易量
2%
Mistral
$5,299 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,727 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$6,079 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$4,749 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Traders assign the highest implied probability (57.5%) to no model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current frontier large language models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google sit clustered between roughly 1500 and 1506 following spring 2026 releases such as GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Incremental gains on agentic workflows, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, and multimodal capabilities have narrowed gaps without delivering the larger capability jumps needed to clear the threshold before year-end. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds (33.0%) on the back of its recent Opus series consistently matching or slightly exceeding rivals on reasoning and long-context tasks, while Google (7.5%) and OpenAI (2.8%) trail amid similar incremental updates. The compressed timeline to resolution and historical patterns of gradual Elo progression reinforce the market’s caution.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
市场开放时间： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
交易量
$73,503结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Traders assign the highest implied probability (57.5%) to no model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current frontier large language models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google sit clustered between roughly 1500 and 1506 following spring 2026 releases such as GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Incremental gains on agentic workflows, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, and multimodal capabilities have narrowed gaps without delivering the larger capability jumps needed to clear the threshold before year-end. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds (33.0%) on the back of its recent Opus series consistently matching or slightly exceeding rivals on reasoning and long-context tasks, while Google (7.5%) and OpenAI (2.8%) trail amid similar incremental updates. The compressed timeline to resolution and historical patterns of gradual Elo progression reinforce the market’s caution.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
交易量
$73,503结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign the highest implied probability (57.5%) to no model reaching 1550 Elo on Chatbot Arena in 2026 because current frontier large language models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google sit clustered between roughly 1500 and 1506 following spring 2026 releases such as GPT-5.5, Claude Opus 4.7, and Gemini 3.1 Pro. Incremental gains on agentic workflows, coding benchmarks like SWE-bench, and multimodal capabilities have narrowed gaps without delivering the larger capability jumps needed to clear the threshold before year-end. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds (33.0%) on the back of its recent Opus series consistently matching or slightly exceeding rivals on reasoning and long-context tasks, while Google (7.5%) and OpenAI (2.8%) trail amid similar incremental updates. The compressed timeline to resolution and historical patterns of gradual Elo progression reinforce the market’s caution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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