Joshua Van’s status as the reigning UFC flyweight champion, fresh off a fifth-round TKO title defense against Tatsuro Taira at UFC 328, anchors trader consensus around his 54% implied probability of still holding the belt at year’s end. The 24-year-old’s rapid 2025 ascent—capped by claiming the title via first-round stoppage of Alexandre Pantoja—combined with strong recent form and youth gives him a clear edge in a division defined by high-level grappling and striking exchanges. Veterans Kyoji Horiguchi and Manel Kape sit close behind, reflecting their established records and potential to capitalize on any Van setbacks, while Pantoja and Taira remain in the mix despite recent losses. The tight clustering among top contenders underscores the competitive depth and uncertainty inherent in multi-fight title scenarios through the remainder of 2026.