Merab Dvalishvili’s public statements and Petr Yan’s confirmation of an immediate trilogy rematch after Yan’s December 2025 title win at UFC 323 have anchored the 77% market pricing on Yan as the next opponent. Both fighters have repeatedly referenced recovery timelines, with Merab noting Yan’s back surgery and expressing readiness for an August clash once cleared, while the UFC has signaled commitment to the trilogy over interim title bouts. This consensus sidelines other bantamweight contenders such as Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov despite their rankings and recent activity, as no alternate matchmaking has materialized in the past month. The implied probability reflects the wisdom of crowds reacting to direct fighter comments rather than speculation.