Petr Yan’s return from back surgery, expected no earlier than summer 2026, has locked in a UFC-promoted trilogy with Merab Dvalishvili as the clear next bout. Yan reclaimed the bantamweight title with a dominant unanimous-decision win over Dvalishvili at UFC 323 in December 2025, and both fighters plus UFC officials have repeatedly confirmed an immediate rematch once recovery timelines align, likely August. This official commitment and the division’s recent history of prioritizing top-contender rematches explain the overwhelming 80.5% implied probability on Dvalishvili. Sean O’Malley sits at 14.8% as the next logical title challenger if the trilogy is delayed or resolved, while all other names remain below 1% because no credible reports link Yan to those matchups or suggest a move outside the title picture.