Below-normal activity forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season represent the main driver behind the 67% market-implied odds against any Category 4 landfall in the contiguous United States before 2027. NOAA projects 3–6 hurricanes and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) through November, citing an emerging El Niño pattern and reduced atmospheric conditions that typically suppress intensification. Colorado State University and other models similarly anticipate below-average major-hurricane days and landfall probabilities. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, providing recent precedent for subdued outcomes. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and National Hurricane Center briefings throughout the peak months that could shift these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$330,018 交易量
$330,018 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$330,018 交易量
$330,018 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season represent the main driver behind the 67% market-implied odds against any Category 4 landfall in the contiguous United States before 2027. NOAA projects 3–6 hurricanes and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) through November, citing an emerging El Niño pattern and reduced atmospheric conditions that typically suppress intensification. Colorado State University and other models similarly anticipate below-average major-hurricane days and landfall probabilities. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, providing recent precedent for subdued outcomes. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and National Hurricane Center briefings throughout the peak months that could shift these odds.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$330,018结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal activity forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season represent the main driver behind the 67% market-implied odds against any Category 4 landfall in the contiguous United States before 2027. NOAA projects 3–6 hurricanes and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) through November, citing an emerging El Niño pattern and reduced atmospheric conditions that typically suppress intensification. Colorado State University and other models similarly anticipate below-average major-hurricane days and landfall probabilities. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, providing recent precedent for subdued outcomes. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and National Hurricane Center briefings throughout the peak months that could shift these odds.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$330,018结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal activity forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season represent the main driver behind the 67% market-implied odds against any Category 4 landfall in the contiguous United States before 2027. NOAA projects 3–6 hurricanes and just 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) through November, citing an emerging El Niño pattern and reduced atmospheric conditions that typically suppress intensification. Colorado State University and other models similarly anticipate below-average major-hurricane days and landfall probabilities. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, providing recent precedent for subdued outcomes. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and National Hurricane Center briefings throughout the peak months that could shift these odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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