Traders assign a 97% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, troop concentrations, or logistics buildups required for such an operation in the remaining window. Recent developments include continued PLA joint combat readiness patrols and carrier drills around Taiwan in May 2026, alongside routine gray-zone activity, but these fall short of invasion thresholds. Diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi in mid-May addressed arms sales and cross-strait stability without producing escalatory shifts, while Taiwan advanced defense measures through a special budget. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where full-scale invasions demand months of observable mobilization absent here. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes remain limited to sudden leadership decisions, major diplomatic ruptures, or unintended clashes during patrols, though none show signs of materializing before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$807,546 交易量
$807,546 交易量
2026-09-30
是
$807,546 交易量
$807,546 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 97% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, troop concentrations, or logistics buildups required for such an operation in the remaining window. Recent developments include continued PLA joint combat readiness patrols and carrier drills around Taiwan in May 2026, alongside routine gray-zone activity, but these fall short of invasion thresholds. Diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi in mid-May addressed arms sales and cross-strait stability without producing escalatory shifts, while Taiwan advanced defense measures through a special budget. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where full-scale invasions demand months of observable mobilization absent here. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes remain limited to sudden leadership decisions, major diplomatic ruptures, or unintended clashes during patrols, though none show signs of materializing before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
交易量
$807,546结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 97% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, troop concentrations, or logistics buildups required for such an operation in the remaining window. Recent developments include continued PLA joint combat readiness patrols and carrier drills around Taiwan in May 2026, alongside routine gray-zone activity, but these fall short of invasion thresholds. Diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi in mid-May addressed arms sales and cross-strait stability without producing escalatory shifts, while Taiwan advanced defense measures through a special budget. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where full-scale invasions demand months of observable mobilization absent here. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes remain limited to sudden leadership decisions, major diplomatic ruptures, or unintended clashes during patrols, though none show signs of materializing before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$807,569结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations, troop concentrations, or logistics buildups required for such an operation in the remaining window. Recent developments include continued PLA joint combat readiness patrols and carrier drills around Taiwan in May 2026, alongside routine gray-zone activity, but these fall short of invasion thresholds. Diplomatic engagement between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi in mid-May addressed arms sales and cross-strait stability without producing escalatory shifts, while Taiwan advanced defense measures through a special budget. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where full-scale invasions demand months of observable mobilization absent here. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes remain limited to sudden leadership decisions, major diplomatic ruptures, or unintended clashes during patrols, though none show signs of materializing before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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