Democrats hold a 62.5% implied probability of sweeping the Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine Senate contests in the 2026 midterms. This trader consensus reflects the typical midterm headwinds facing the president's party, combined with Democratic recruitment successes and polling leads or competitiveness in the targeted Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine. Democrats must defend Jon Ossoff in Georgia and an open Michigan seat in states carried by Trump in 2024, while Republicans face an open North Carolina race and Susan Collins's Maine contest in a state won by Harris. Generic ballot trends and historical patterns of opposition gains continue to anchor assessments, with no major legislative actions or candidate developments altering the outlook in recent weeks. Late-cycle polling shifts or primary outcomes could still influence final margins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
最新
最新
2026-11-03
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Democrats hold a 62.5% implied probability of sweeping the Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine Senate contests in the 2026 midterms. This trader consensus reflects the typical midterm headwinds facing the president's party, combined with Democratic recruitment successes and polling leads or competitiveness in the targeted Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine. Democrats must defend Jon Ossoff in Georgia and an open Michigan seat in states carried by Trump in 2024, while Republicans face an open North Carolina race and Susan Collins's Maine contest in a state won by Harris. Generic ballot trends and historical patterns of opposition gains continue to anchor assessments, with no major legislative actions or candidate developments altering the outlook in recent weeks. Late-cycle polling shifts or primary outcomes could still influence final margins.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$6,290结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.Democrats hold a 62.5% implied probability of sweeping the Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine Senate contests in the 2026 midterms. This trader consensus reflects the typical midterm headwinds facing the president's party, combined with Democratic recruitment successes and polling leads or competitiveness in the targeted Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine. Democrats must defend Jon Ossoff in Georgia and an open Michigan seat in states carried by Trump in 2024, while Republicans face an open North Carolina race and Susan Collins's Maine contest in a state won by Harris. Generic ballot trends and historical patterns of opposition gains continue to anchor assessments, with no major legislative actions or candidate developments altering the outlook in recent weeks. Late-cycle polling shifts or primary outcomes could still influence final margins.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
交易量
$6,290结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats hold a 62.5% implied probability of sweeping the Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine Senate contests in the 2026 midterms. This trader consensus reflects the typical midterm headwinds facing the president's party, combined with Democratic recruitment successes and polling leads or competitiveness in the targeted Republican-held seats in North Carolina and Maine. Democrats must defend Jon Ossoff in Georgia and an open Michigan seat in states carried by Trump in 2024, while Republicans face an open North Carolina race and Susan Collins's Maine contest in a state won by Harris. Generic ballot trends and historical patterns of opposition gains continue to anchor assessments, with no major legislative actions or candidate developments altering the outlook in recent weeks. Late-cycle polling shifts or primary outcomes could still influence final margins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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