Russian forces briefly claimed control of Ternuvate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late January 2026, yet Ukrainian units conducted reconnaissance operations and fully cleared remaining Russian elements by early February, maintaining continuous control since with no verified sustained Russian positions observed through late May. Trader assessments reflect this outcome alongside ongoing Russian probing attacks and small-scale infiltration attempts in the broader Orikhiv sector, offset by reports of depleted offensive capacity among involved Russian units and Ukrainian counter-moves that have preserved the settlement's status. Resolution hinges on Institute for the Study of War mapping confirming any Russian territorial capture within specified deadlines, amid a frontline environment where incremental advances remain constrained by local force dispositions and Ukrainian defensive posture.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$401,404 交易量
July 31
20%
$401,404 交易量
July 31
20%
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
市场开放时间: May 27, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces briefly claimed control of Ternuvate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late January 2026, yet Ukrainian units conducted reconnaissance operations and fully cleared remaining Russian elements by early February, maintaining continuous control since with no verified sustained Russian positions observed through late May. Trader assessments reflect this outcome alongside ongoing Russian probing attacks and small-scale infiltration attempts in the broader Orikhiv sector, offset by reports of depleted offensive capacity among involved Russian units and Ukrainian counter-moves that have preserved the settlement's status. Resolution hinges on Institute for the Study of War mapping confirming any Russian territorial capture within specified deadlines, amid a frontline environment where incremental advances remain constrained by local force dispositions and Ukrainian defensive posture.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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