Russian forces have sustained offensive operations northwest and east of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast through late May 2026, with attacks reported near the town and surrounding settlements, yet assessments indicate no confirmed advances or capture of key positions such as the railroad station. Ukrainian units have conducted counterattacks and reclaimed limited ground in the broader Slovyansk-Lyman sector during April and May, contributing to a net slowdown in Russian territorial gains across Donetsk compared to prior periods. These frontline dynamics, alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes and defensive reinforcements, shape trader assessments of timelines for any Russian control over Lyman, with potential shifts tied to intensified assaults, reinforcements, or Ukrainian operational responses in the coming months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Clashes continue near Lyman with no confirmed Russian capture of railroad station
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Ongoing fighting and multiple repelled Russian assaults near Lyman without confirmed control of the railroad station maintained uncertainty and low market confidence in Russian capture by May 31.
ISW reports Russian forces continue infiltration but no confirmed capture of Lyman
ISW reported ongoing Russian infiltration missions near Lyman but no confirmed territorial gains or capture of the railroad station, reinforcing the market's low confidence in Russian capture by May 31, 2026.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Lyman direction, continuing to impede advances
May 31 dips to 1%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian servicemembers near Lyman, confirming ongoing Ukrainian resistance and lack of Russian control over the railroad station, supporting low market prices for capture by May 31.
ISW reports Russian generals provide false maps claiming towns including Lyman captured
December 31 dips to 48%3%
ISW revealed that Russian generals fed the Kremlin false information about territorial gains including Lyman, masking a steep slowdown in advances. This undermined confidence in Russian capture prospects and contributed to market price declines.
Ukrainian forces maintain control and target Russian logistics near Lyman
June 30 dips to 7%3%
Ukrainian brigades reported targeting Russian ground lines of communication and drone operators near Lyman, inhibiting Russian supply and limiting advances. This contributed to a further decline in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Russian military command's exaggerations persist amid slow advances near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 6%16%
ISW reported that Russian forces have only infiltrated small areas near Lyman with no significant gains, while Ukrainian forces continue to disrupt Russian logistics, maintaining low market confidence for capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces target Russian supply lines near Lyman, limiting advances
June 30 drops to 6%10%
Ukrainian brigades reported targeting Russian ground lines of communication and drone operators near Lyman, disrupting Russian supply and limiting their ability to sustain forward positions. This contributed to the market's sharp decline in confidence for capture by June 30 and May 31 deadlines.
Ukrainian forces control road between Lyman and Stavky, indicating Russian failure to secure Lyman
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Reports on May 26 indicated Ukrainian control of the road between Lyman and Stavky, with geolocated footage showing Russian strikes east of Stavky and northwestern Lyman. This suggests Russian forces had not captured the Lyman railroad station, contributing to declining market confidence in Russian capture by earlier dates.
Reports indicate Ukrainian control of road between Lyman and Stavky
December 31 dips to 50%2%
A source reported Ukrainian forces control the road between Lyman and Stavky, with footage showing Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions nearby, suggesting Ukrainian hold on key access routes and limiting Russian control of Lyman.
US DIA and NATO report Ukraine's strong defense stabilizing front near Lyman
June 30 drops to 7%6%
Western intelligence assessments highlighted Ukraine's effective defense and Russian offensive stagnation near Lyman, reinforcing market doubts about Russian capture by June 30 and May 31 dates.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman area
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman after Russian infiltration missions, indicating active Ukrainian resistance and contested control in the Lyman area.
Russian forces report successes on Lyman front amid ongoing attacks
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Russian forces reported successes in Lyman and nearby areas despite contradictory reports. Continued fighting and strikes on logistics infrastructure kept the situation fluid, with no confirmed Russian capture of the Lyman railroad station, maintaining market uncertainty and a moderate price level.
Bloomberg reports Kremlin officials see war in deadlock but Putin aims to seize Donetsk and Luhansk by end of 2026
December 31 dips to 50%2%
Despite battlefield stalemate, Kremlin leadership reportedly remains committed to capturing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, including Lyman, by the end of 2026, supporting some market optimism for December 31 capture but not earlier dates.
Ukrainian forces advance southeast of Kryva Luka and strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman
December 31 dips to 50%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances and strikes near Lyman, indicating ongoing Ukrainian control and resistance, which kept market confidence in Russian capture low.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman after infiltration mission
December 31 dips to 52%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman following a Russian infiltration mission, indicating that Russian forces had not secured control of the area including the railroad station.
Geolocated footage shows Russian advances north and east of Lyman
Footage published in mid-May showed Russian forces advancing in eastern Ridkodub and central Torske, north and east of Lyman, indicating ongoing Russian efforts to approach Lyman but without confirmed capture of the railroad station, sustaining market uncertainty.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman amid ongoing fighting
May 31 dips to 1%4%
Geolocated footage on May 20 showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in eastern Lyman, indicating active contested control and no confirmed Russian capture of the railroad station. This contributed to further market decline in the probability of Russian capture by May 31.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in eastern Lyman after infiltration mission
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Lyman, indicating ongoing Ukrainian resistance and preventing Russian consolidation of the railroad station, contributing to market price stabilization around 50% for December 31.
Ukrainian forces maintain control in western Lyman amid intensified Russian drone strikes
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces holding positions in western Lyman, while Russian forces increased drone attacks targeting Ukrainian logistics, indicating ongoing contested control and limiting Russian advances, reflected in market price decline.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of western Lyman, repel Russian incursions
May 31 drops to 2%5%
Ukrainian reports and geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces still holding western Lyman and repelling Russian infiltrations, reinforcing market belief that a capture was unlikely; price for May 31 fell from 7 % to 2 % the next day.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian oil refinery and pumping station in Russia, signaling ongoing pressure
December 31 dips to 53%1%
Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil refineries and pumping stations, indicate sustained Ukrainian operational capability, indirectly affecting Russian logistics near Lyman and market confidence.
Ukrainian air force reports Russian missile and drone attacks on multiple locations
May 31 dips to 3%1%
Ukrainian forces confirmed Russian missile and drone attacks, with wreckage found at a railway station in the Krasnodar region. This incident may have contributed to market volatility.
ISW refutes Russian claims of advances in Kharkiv region
December 31 plunges to 48%38%
ISW reported that Russian General Valery Gerasimov falsely claimed Russian forces had captured 50% of Lyman and other settlements, but ISW data showed only 0.06% of Lyman was under Russian control, causing a significant price drop.
Russian General Staff again exaggerates advances near Lyman and Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Russian General Staff chief Gerasimov falsely claimed advances near Lyman and other settlements, but ISW confirmed only minimal Russian control, maintaining skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Gerasimov claims 85 % of Lyman seized during May 16 briefing
Gerasimov again announced that Russian forces had captured 85 % of Lyman during a meeting with the Western Grouping. The market reacted with a modest rise (from 13 % to 13 % – stabilising) but the overall trend remained downward, confirming diminishing belief in a capture.
ISW assesses Russian forces hold only limited infiltration positions in Lyman, no consolidated control
On May 16, ISW reported that Russian forces only infiltrated about 0.06% of Lyman and do not hold consolidated positions, indicating no capture of the railroad station and sustaining market skepticism about a near-term Russian capture.
Russian General Staff chief falsely claims over 85% control of Lyman
December 31 drops to 50%8%
Valery Gerasimov again exaggerated Russian control near Lyman, claiming over 85% control, while ISW and other sources reported only minor Russian presence. This ongoing misinformation campaign contributed to market skepticism and price declines for near-term capture outcomes.
Russian Defense Minister outlines plans to accelerate offensive tempo
December 31 jumps to 67%8%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov announced plans to preserve and accelerate the tempo of the offensive in Donetsk and other regions, including efforts to drive Ukrainian forces from parts of Zaporizhzhia. This renewed military focus supported moderate market confidence in a December 31 capture of Lyman.
Market sentiment declines amid stalled peace talks and ongoing Russian offensives
December 31 drops to 48%6%
As peace talks showed limited progress and Russian military pressure continued, market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by year-end decreased, reflected in a price drop to around 48%.
ISW map shows Lyman still under Ukrainian control
The latest Institute for the Study of War map, released on May 15, confirmed that the Lyman railroad station remained under Ukrainian control, solidifying the market’s final move to low ‘Yes’ probabilities across all outcomes.
ISW confirms Russian forces still lack control of Lyman railway station
May 31 drops to 2%5%
A late‑May ISW bulletin confirmed that Russian forces had not seized the Lyman railway station and were on the defensive, driving the “May 31” price down further from 7 % to 2 %.
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish military-to-military dialogue
December 31 rises to 52%2%
Senior officials from the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after the New START treaty expired, signaling potential for renewed communication channels.
Russia continues to face resistance in eastern Ukraine
June 30 drops to 7%9%
Continued reports of Ukrainian defensive operations and lack of significant Russian territorial gains in the analysis window led to a further decline in the June 30 outcome.
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian logistics sites intensify
May 31 drops to 2%10%
A surge in Ukrainian deep‑strike drone operations against Russian supply lines increased the perceived risk of a Russian counter‑offensive, causing a slight dip in the May‑31 price from 12% to 2% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a Russian capture.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian oil depot, prompting Russian retaliation
May 31 plunges to 2%24%
A high‑profile Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian oil depot heightened tensions and led to a sharp decline in the May‑31 odds as traders expected Russian focus to shift away from Lyman.
ISW reports no confirmed Russian advances in Lyman area, market confidence collapses
May 31 dips to 2%4%
By mid-May, ISW assessments continued to show no confirmed Russian control of Lyman railroad station, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for capture by May 31 and June 30, reflecting diminished expectations for near-term capture.
Russian drone strike on Dnipro kills miners, raises security concerns
May 31 dips to 2%3%
A high‑profile Russian drone attack in Dnipro heightened security concerns and shifted market focus away from Lyman, contributing to the May 31 price falling to a low of 2% that day.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 jumps to 53%5%
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
ISW assesses Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains
ISW concluded that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than 17 March, and that Russian forces have lost ground since 1 March. This comprehensive assessment of Russian military failure likely contributed to the market's continued price stability at 54% for the December 31 outcome.
Market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman drops to near zero amid persistent Ukrainian defense
May 31 dips to 1%1%
Market prices for Russian capture by May 31 fell sharply to 1%, reflecting reports of strong Ukrainian resistance and lack of Russian territorial gains at the Lyman railroad station.
Russian military command exaggerates territorial gains near Lyman
May 31 drops to 1%5%
Russian claims of advances were contradicted by ISW and Ukrainian sources showing minimal Russian control near Lyman, leading to a further decline in market confidence for capture by May 31.
Russian drone strike kills 12 miners in Dnipro, heightening frontline fighting
The deadly drone attack underscored Russia’s intensified use of air power near the front, reducing confidence in a negotiated settlement and pushing the May‑31 price down to 2% as the market saw little chance of a Russian capture of Lyman before year‑end.
Russian officials warn of extending gains if talks fail
December 31 drops to 50%5%
Putin’s warning that Russia would push further if peace talks stalled revived concerns of a Lyman capture, nudging the December‑31 price up from 55% to 50% before the market closed the day.
Russian military command reinforces Lyman direction amid declining advances
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Reports indicated Russian command attached additional forces to the Lyman direction, but overall Russian advances declined due to Ukrainian strikes and recruitment issues, reducing market confidence in imminent capture.
Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, investigators suspect Ukraine
December 31 dips to 50%4%
A high-ranking Russian general was killed by a car bomb in Moscow, with investigators suspecting Ukrainian involvement, reflecting ongoing covert conflict and instability that likely dampened market confidence in Russian advances including Lyman.
European allies announce new security guarantees for Ukraine
May 31 drops to 3%9%
The coalition of the willing pledged extensive security guarantees, reducing expectations that Russia would secure Lyman before year‑end, pushing the May 31 price down to single digits.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees amid ongoing conflict
December 31 drops to 50%5%
International support for Ukraine strengthened with commitments to defense guarantees if a peace deal is reached, reinforcing Ukrainian resolve and reducing market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by near-term dates.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power plants cause severe electricity shortages
December 31 drops to 49%5%
Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure intensified, exacerbating shortages and increasing pressure on Ukraine’s defenses. This heightened conflict intensity near contested areas like Lyman, affecting market perceptions of control dynamics.
U.S. President Trump pushes for accelerated peace negotiations
December 31 drops to 55%7%
Trump’s intensified diplomatic push raised hopes of a negotiated settlement, which would count as a ‘Yes’ if Russia gained control, causing a modest rise in the December‑31 price from 62% to 55% as traders priced in a possible settlement outcome.
Russian forces intensify artillery and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine
December 31 rises to 55%1%
Increased Russian bombardment aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses suggested preparations for renewed ground offensives, temporarily boosting market expectations for Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian missile attack flattens Kyiv apartment building amid ongoing conflict
December 31 dips to 54%2%
A deadly Russian missile strike on a Kyiv apartment building killed 24 people, highlighting the ongoing intensity of the conflict and the challenges Ukraine faces, which may influence market perceptions of Russian military pressure including around Lyman.
Russian forces claim seizure of Pryshyb northwest of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 54%3%
On May 7, Russian sources claimed to have seized Pryshyb near Lyman, indicating localized advances but not full control of Lyman or its railroad station, maintaining market uncertainty about full capture.
US-brokered peace talks resume amid ongoing front-line fighting
December 31 rises to 54%1%
Renewed peace talks in Abu Dhabi occurred alongside continued fighting and drone attacks, maintaining uncertainty about territorial control including Lyman, contributing to market price volatility.
Russian infiltration mission near Lyman fails to make confirmed advances
June 30 plunges to 19%30%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Lyman but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, reinforcing Ukrainian control and reducing market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Russian infiltration mission near Lyman fails to secure advances
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Russian forces conducted an infiltration mission southeast of Lyman but did not make confirmed advances. Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions, maintaining control and causing further decline in market confidence for Russian capture of Lyman.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions along Donetska Railway near Lyman
December 31 drops to 54%11%
Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions along the railway southeast of Lyman demonstrated continued Ukrainian resistance and limited Russian advances, contributing to market price decline for Russian capture.
Russian forces conduct infiltration near Lyman but no confirmed advances
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions southeast of Lyman but ISW reported no confirmed territorial gains or control of the railroad station, indicating continued Ukrainian control and resistance.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet to discuss Ukraine security and peace plan
May 31 dips to 3%4%
The meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy focused on security guarantees and territorial issues, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts that may delay or complicate Russian territorial gains including Lyman. Market prices for earlier capture dates declined further.
Russian forces claim advances northwest of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 plunges to 54%25%
Russian milbloggers claimed advances to the Pryshyb-Shandryholove road northwest of Lyman, but ISW could not verify significant territorial gains, reflecting continued contested control and uncertainty about Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian forces claim advance northwest of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 50%4%
A Russian milblogger claimed Russian forces advanced to the O0527 Pryshyb-Shandryholove road northwest of Lyman, indicating continued Russian efforts to capture the area. However, no confirmed major territorial gains were reported, reflecting persistent stalemate and contributing to market price declines for earlier capture dates.
Russia scales up attacks on energy infrastructure
December 31 plunges to 57%23%
Renewed Russian strikes on energy facilities signaled a shift in strategy, potentially diverting resources away from ground offensives in the Lyman area.
Russia claims Ukrainian drones attacked Putin's residence in Novgorod
December 31 dips to 54%2%
Russia accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack on Putin's official residence, prompting threats from Russian officials and hardening Russia's negotiating position. This disinformation effort may have influenced market perceptions of Russian gains.
Ukrainian forces recapture territory near Lyman
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports that Ukrainian troops reclaimed several square kilometres near Lyman reduced expectations of a Russian capture, pulling the May‑31 price down from 25% to 12% and the December‑31 price from 78% to 62%.
Continued fighting near Lyman with no decisive Russian control reported
May 31 dips to 3%4%
Reports indicated ongoing clashes and no clear Russian capture of Lyman railroad station, contributing to a steady decline in market confidence for Russian control by May 31.
Russian diplomatic push stalls, focus returns to battlefield
May 31 dips to 9%2%
As diplomatic efforts stalled, Russian attention shifted back to front‑line operations, causing a modest rebound in the May 31 price from 11% to 9% as traders speculated a renewed push toward Lyman.
Ukraine faces internal political pressure amid corruption scandal and external military threats
December 31 dips to 62%1%
President Zelenskyy confronted a major corruption scandal while Russia intensified attacks, increasing uncertainty about Ukraine's stability and resilience, which influenced market sentiment downward.
Trump hosts Zelenskyy in Florida to discuss security guarantees and peace plan
December 31 drops to 54%8%
U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met to discuss security guarantees and a 20-point peace plan, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution but with unresolved territorial issues, leading to mixed market reactions.
Russian forces claim limited gains in Donetsk but Ukrainian officials dispute
Kremlin video claiming capture of nearby settlements was met with Ukrainian denial, creating uncertainty and prompting a modest price dip for the May‑31 contract from 25% to 12% as traders reassessed capture prospects.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Russian oil depot in Volgograd
December 31 jumps to 78%5%
A high‑profile Ukrainian drone attack on Russian energy infrastructure heightened Russian retaliation risk, briefly raising the December‑31 price from 73% to 78% as analysts feared a broader Russian push.
Ukrainian counter‑attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia
May 31 dips to 11%1%
Successful Ukrainian counter‑offensives in nearby regions weakened Russian momentum, pushing the May 31 price down further from 12% to 11% as the prospect of capturing Lyman dimmed.
ISW reports no confirmed Russian capture of Lyman railroad station
December 31 rises to 64%3%
ISW assessments continued to show no confirmed Russian control of the Lyman railroad station, reinforcing market doubts about imminent capture and contributing to price declines for short-term outcomes.
Small group clashes near Lyman reported
May 31 plunges to 1%24%
Pravda UK reported small-scale fighting near Lyman with Ukrainian formations infiltrating Russian positions, indicating ongoing but limited combat operations without significant territorial changes.
Russian sabotage campaign strains European security resources
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Ongoing Russian sabotage operations across Europe, including attacks on railways and infrastructure, aimed to undermine support for Ukraine and divert resources, reflecting Russia's hybrid warfare strategy and affecting market perceptions of conflict dynamics.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Lyman, preparing for counterattacks
December 31 drops to 68%13%
Ukrainian brigade reported targeting Russian logistics and preparing counterattacks in the Lyman direction, indicating active Ukrainian resistance and complicating Russian efforts to capture the area, which pressured market prices downward.
U.S. and European allies agree on multilayered security guarantees for Ukraine
A major diplomatic breakthrough in Paris signaled stronger Western support for Kyiv, lowering expectations that Russia could capture Lyman and causing the December‑31 price to fall from 79% to 60% over the week.
European nations commit to troops in Ukraine as part of 'milestone' peace talks in Paris
December 31 jumps to 66%6%
European countries, including the UK and France, committed to sending troops to Ukraine to safeguard any future peace deal, signaling strong Western support for Ukraine and reducing market expectations of Russian territorial gains such as Lyman by year-end.
Zelenskyy says US gave June deadline for peace deal
May 31 drops to 12%13%
The announcement of a June deadline for a peace deal significantly reduced the likelihood of a military capture of Lyman by December, shifting market focus.
ISW reports ongoing fighting near Lyman with Russian advances contested
June 30 plunges to 16%15%
ISW reported active fighting near Lyman with Russian forces advancing near surrounding settlements but Ukrainian forces holding tactical initiative. The contested nature of control around Lyman kept market prices fluctuating, reflecting uncertainty about a full Russian capture by May and June deadlines.
Russian drone attack kills 3 and wounds children in Ukraine
December 31 drops to 60%6%
A heavy Russian drone bombardment of Odesa killed civilians including children, highlighting ongoing Russian aggression and the humanitarian toll, which contributed to declining market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Lyman by year-end.
Russian drone strike kills at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro
June 30 plunges to 17%38%
A Russian drone strike killed civilians in Dnipro, escalating hostilities and complicating peace talks. This violence contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence for Russian capture by June 30 and May 31.
Ukraine faces growing internal and external pressures amid stalled peace talks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports highlighted Ukraine's political and military challenges, including corruption scandals and stalled negotiations with Russia, increasing uncertainty about the conflict's trajectory and Russia's ability to capture Lyman. Market prices for near-term capture dates dropped sharply.
Russian MoD map shows Lyman station shaded red, later deemed inaccurate
December 31 drops to 61%6%
The Russian MoD published a map showing red shading over Lyman rail station, but ISW and DeepStateMap later declared the map erroneous. The mismatch caused a temporary dip (price from 67 % to 61 % on April 22).
ISW map shows Russian pull‑back from Lyman amid Ukrainian counter‑offensive
May 31 drops to 12%13%
ISW’s mid‑April map showed Russian forces pulling back from Lyman as Ukrainian counter‑attacks intensified, prompting the “May 31” price to tumble from 25 % to 12 % the same day.
ISW finds Russian claims of Lyman gains inconsistent with evidence
May 31 plunges to 2%23%
ISW reported that Russian claims of 70% Lyman seizure were inconsistent with ISW's assessment of 0% Russian control, highlighting a significant gap between Russian claims and verified control. This contributed to market skepticism.
Russian forces pause offensive near Lyman amid stalled talks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports that Russian troops halted advances near Lyman as peace negotiations stalled led to a sharp decline in the May 31 price from 25% to 12%, reflecting reduced confidence in a near‑term capture.
ISW assesses Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains
May 31 dips to 3%3%
ISW concluded that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than 17 March, and that Russian forces have lost ground since 1 March. This major assessment shift significantly impacted market pricing.
Russia's Chief of General Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized — ISW finds no evidence
June 30 drops to 14%7%
Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed 70% of Lyman seized, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control, contradicting Russian claims. This significant discrepancy contributed to market price drops.
Russia's Chief of the General Staff claims 70% of Lyman seized — ISW finds no evidence
June 30 drops to 13%9%
General Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence to support this claim, contradicting Russian sources. This direct contradiction between Russian claims and ISW assessment likely caused the market's significant price decline from 80% to 13% for the June 30 outcome.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks forced Russia to divert resources, reducing pressure on Lyman and lowering market confidence in Russian capture by mid-2026.
Gerasimov Claims 70% of Lyman Seized — ISW Finds No Evidence of Russian Control
Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed 70% of Lyman was seized, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control, causing a sharp price drop to 13%.
ISW finds Russian claims of Lyman control contradicted by evidence; Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized
December 31 drops to 48%12%
ISW found no evidence Russian forces had seized any of Lyman, directly contradicting Russian claims that Gerasimov stated 70% of Lyman was seized. This major discrepancy between Russian claims and ISW assessment caused significant price declines across all outcomes.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
June 30 drops to 16%12%
Ukraine’s allies announced progress on defense guarantees contingent on a peace deal, signaling international support for Ukraine’s defense and potentially limiting Russian advances. This development influenced market sentiment negatively for Russian capture prospects by mid-year.
Gerasimov claims 70% of Lyman seized but ISW finds no evidence of Russian control
December 31 drops to 63%5%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed significant control over Lyman, but ISW analysis found no evidence supporting Russian seizure of the city, highlighting ongoing misinformation and contested control, which contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
ISW refutes Russian claims of Lyman territorial gains
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
ISW reported that Russian claims of seizing 70% of Lyman were contradicted by available evidence, with ISW assessing only 0% Russian control of Lyman. This directly contradicted Russian assertions and contributed to market price declines.
ISW says Gerasimov’s Lyman claim is unsupported by evidence
December 31 plunges to 61%19%
ISW publicly refuted Gerasimov’s 70 % claim, stating it had observed no Russian presence in Lyman. The rebuttal coincided with a sharp price drop from 80 % to 61 % on April 22.
Russian Chief of General Staff claims partial seizure of Lyman disputed by ISW
December 31 drops to 60%6%
Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control in Lyman, only partial control in nearby areas. This discrepancy led to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russian General Gerasimov claims 70% control of Lyman, contradicted by ISW
December 31 plunges to 64%23%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed significant territorial gains including 70% control of Lyman, but ISW and other analysts found no evidence supporting these claims, indicating Russian forces had not captured the city or the railroad station.
EU leaders announce concrete security guarantees for Ukraine
June 30 drops to 16%9%
The announcement of a detailed security package, including air‑defense support, lowered market confidence that Russia would succeed, driving the June‑30 price sharply lower from 25% to 16%.
ISW Assesses Zero Tactically Significant Russian Gains in Spring-Summer 2026 Offensive
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia's spring-summer 2026 offensive produced zero tactically significant gains since launching no later than March 17, causing a price drop to 13%.
Russian Chief of Staff Gerasimov exaggerates territorial gains near Lyman
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman and advanced close to key cities, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control in Lyman, highlighting ongoing Russian propaganda and lack of real progress. This contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russian General Gerasimov exaggerates Russian gains in Lyman area
December 31 dips to 86%4%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed 70% seizure of Lyman, but ISW found no evidence of Russian control in Lyman, highlighting misinformation and undermining market confidence in Russian capture by near dates.
U.S.‑Russia high‑level talks resume, no immediate ceasefire
June 30 plunges to 19%15%
A diplomatic meeting in Abu Dhabi re‑established military‑to‑military dialogue but did not produce a ceasefire, keeping the prospect of Russian gains uncertain and causing the June 30 price to fall further.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil facilities amid rising energy prices
December 31 plunges to 64%15%
Ukraine's deep-strike drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure demonstrated growing military capabilities, pressuring Russia's war effort and complicating its offensive operations, contributing to market price declines.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery in Tuapse, demonstrating extended strike capabilities
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Ukraine's ability to conduct deep strikes into Russian territory with drones showcased its growing military capabilities, potentially limiting Russian offensive momentum including in Lyman. This contributed to further declines in market prices for Russia capturing Lyman by May 31 and June 30.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
June 30 plunges to 27%31%
Ukrainian forces conducted successful counterattacks disrupting Russian advances and forcing Russia to allocate resources defensively. This reduced the likelihood of a swift Russian capture of Lyman by earlier dates, reflected in falling market prices for June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway infrastructure affecting Lyman logistics
December 31 drops to 66%14%
Ukrainian partisans burned a transformer at a railway substation in occupied Luhansk, disrupting Russian logistics in the Lyman direction. This hindered Russian operational capabilities and contributed to market price declines for Russian capture probabilities.
Ukrainian drone strikes cause fires at Russian oil facilities amid rising energy prices
Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, including refineries and export terminals, have increased, putting pressure on Russia’s war economy and potentially affecting military operations near Lyman.
Ukrainian drones strike oil depot in Russia’s Volgograd region
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy sites highlighted Russia’s growing vulnerabilities, further eroding confidence in a successful Russian push toward Lyman and driving the May 31 price from 25% to 12% shortly after.
Ukrainian partisans sabotage railway infrastructure affecting Lyman logistics
December 31 plunges to 61%25%
Ukrainian partisan groups sabotaged railway infrastructure in occupied Luhansk Oblast, disrupting Russian logistics in the Lyman direction. This hindered Russian operational capabilities and contributed to a decline in market confidence for near-term capture dates.
Ukrainian drones strike logistics near Lyman disrupting Russian supply lines
December 31 plunges to 62%17%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes on cargo trains carrying fuel near occupied Luhansk City, damaging railway infrastructure and disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations near Lyman.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian railway logistics near Luhansk, impacting Russian operations near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 61%21%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed fuel cargo trains and damaged railway infrastructure near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics supporting operations in the Lyman direction, contributing to market price decline.
Ukrainian drone strikes damage Russian logistics near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 64%15%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces struck cargo trains carrying fuel at railway stations near occupied Luhansk City, disrupting Russian logistics supporting Lyman operations. This undermined Russian offensive capabilities and contributed to market price declines.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian logistics near Lyman, disrupting supply lines
December 31 plunges to 64%16%
Ukrainian Security Service and Unmanned Systems Forces conducted drone strikes on cargo trains carrying fuel near occupied Luhansk City, damaging Russian logistics supporting forces near Lyman. This hindered Russian operational capabilities and contributed to market price declines.
Ukrainian forces advance in Slovyansk-Lyman area amid Russian troop buildup
December 31 drops to 65%14%
Ukrainian forces made advances in the Slovyansk-Lyman tactical area while Russian forces prepared reinforcements and fresh troops for southeastern Ukraine. ISW reported Russian attempts to advance near Lyman but no confirmed capture, sustaining market skepticism about a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Defense Minister outlines new Donetsk offensive plans
December 31 jumps to 73%5%
Belousov’s statements about accelerating the tempo of Russian offensives in Donetsk revived fears of a Lyman capture, causing a brief rebound in the December‑31 price from 68% to 73%.
Ukrainian counter‑offensive stalls Russian advance near Lyman
June 30 plunges to 37%34%
Ukrainian reports of successful defensive actions slowed Russian momentum, leading to a noticeable drop in the June‑30 price as market participants reassessed short‑term capture odds.
Ukraine intensifies drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, signaling growing military capabilities
June 30 drops to 17%11%
Ukraine's increased drone attacks deep inside Russia demonstrated enhanced military reach, suggesting continued Ukrainian resilience and complicating Russian territorial gains including Lyman, contributing to market price declines.
Market reacts to reports of stalled Ukraine-Russia peace talks and ongoing fighting
December 31 plunges to 42%15%
Reports indicated no breakthrough in peace negotiations, with both sides entrenched and fighting continuing. This uncertainty contributed to a market price trough reflecting doubts about imminent Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
Russian and Ukrainian forces exchange attacks near Lyman during Orthodox Easter ceasefire
December 31 drops to 61%5%
Despite a unilateral ceasefire, both sides accused each other of violations with continued attacks near Lyman, indicating persistent conflict and no decisive control change, which contributed to market uncertainty and price decline.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia
June 30 plunges to 21%30%
Ukrainian counter-offensive operations forced Russia to divert resources, reducing the immediate threat to the Lyman sector and causing a sharp drop in the market price for a June 30 resolution.
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power plants cause severe electricity shortages
June 30 plunges to 22%29%
Russia's intensified attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure increased pressure on Ukraine but did not translate into immediate territorial gains such as capturing Lyman. Market prices for later capture dates dropped significantly, reflecting uncertainty about Russia's ability to secure Lyman soon.
U.S.‑backed peace talks gain momentum in Paris
June 30 plunges to 25%43%
AP covered a major Paris meeting where 27 European nations pledged security guarantees for Ukraine, signaling a possible diplomatic path that reduced expectations of a Russian capture of Lyman, pushing the June‑30 price down from 68% to 25%.
Small group clashes and high activity reported near Lyman amid forested terrain
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Fierce small unit engagements and infiltration attempts by Ukrainian forces near Lyman's forested outskirts indicated ongoing contested control, maintaining uncertainty and lowering market confidence.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions southeast of Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 dips to 79%2%
Ukrainian advances and strikes on Russian positions near Lyman indicated strong resistance, limiting Russian territorial gains and causing market confidence in Russian capture to decline.
U.S. and Russia re‑establish high‑level military dialogue
December 31 drops to 61%5%
The diplomatic thaw reduced immediate expectations of a Russian offensive, contributing to a dip in the December 31 price from 66% to 61% as traders reassessed the likelihood of a rapid capture.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in peace proposal
June 30 plunges to 22%30%
Ukraine’s allies made progress on defense guarantees to deter future Russian attacks if a peace deal is struck, strengthening Ukraine’s position and reducing market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by mid-2026.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 plunges to 61%18%
Russia launched drones into Ukraine, with wreckage falling on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, confirming Russian military operations in the area and affecting market perception of Russian advances.
U.S. and Russia agree to reestablish military-to-military dialogue after New START expires
June 30 drops to 17%10%
Following the expiration of the New START nuclear arms treaty, the U.S. and Russia agreed to resume high-level military talks. This diplomatic development may influence future conflict dynamics.
Ukraine's allies report progress on defense guarantees if peace deal is struck
December 31 drops to 67%12%
Progress in peace talks and security guarantees led to a decline in the probability of a Russian military capture of Lyman, as a negotiated settlement became more likely.
Ukrainian counterattack stalls Russian push near Lyman
December 31 plunges to 65%16%
Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive that halted Russian advances around Lyman, leading to a sharp drop in the market’s confidence that Russia would capture the station by year‑end.
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian regiment and improve tactical position near Lyman
December 31 drops to 59%12%
Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps and Defense Intelligence Directorate destroyed a Russian regiment and captured troops near Lyman, limiting Russian maneuverability and improving Ukrainian positions, lowering Russian capture chances.
Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian plans to strike railway and logistics targets
December 31 drops to 79%7%
Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Russian forces plan to target railway and logistics infrastructure in spring and summer 2026, indicating a strategic focus on disrupting Ukrainian supply lines near Lyman, affecting the battle dynamics and market sentiment.
Ukrainian President Zelensky reports best frontline situation in 10 months, Russian attacks near Lyman continue
December 31 drops to 68%13%
Zelensky stated Ukrainian intelligence showed the frontline was the best in 10 months, with ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman but no breakthroughs. This bolstered confidence in Ukrainian defense and contributed to market price declines for Russian capture.
Russian drone and missile barrage hits Ukrainian energy grid
June 30 plunges to 19%15%
A massive Russian strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure shifted focus away from Lyman, prompting traders to lower the June 30 price from 34% to 19% as the war’s broader dynamics dominated market sentiment.
Russian drone attack on Krasnodar railway station causes temporary flight restrictions
December 31 rises to 63%2%
Russia launched drones into Ukraine, with wreckage falling on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, causing temporary flight restrictions and highlighting Russian targeting of Ukrainian infrastructure.
Russian drone and missile attacks intensify on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
December 31 plunges to 60%20%
Russia launched large-scale drone and missile strikes targeting Ukraine's energy grid, aiming to weaken Ukrainian resistance and influence peace negotiations, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
Russian drone attack on Ukrainian railway station in Krasnodar region
December 31 jumps to 65%5%
Russia launched a drone attack on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, with drone wreckage falling on the station and causing injuries, demonstrating Russian capability to strike Ukrainian infrastructure.
Ukrainian counterattacks in Donetsk region undermine Russian plans including near Lyman
December 31 drops to 59%7%
ISW reported Ukrainian forces achieved significant tactical gains in Donetsk, forcing Russian redeployment and complicating Russian offensives near Lyman, reducing likelihood of Russian capture soon.
Russian military bloggers criticize Kremlin over war setbacks including Lyman offensive delays
December 31 drops to 61%7%
Russian military bloggers publicly criticized Kremlin and military command for systemic problems and slow progress, including delays in capturing Lyman, signaling internal issues and reducing market confidence.
Russian spring-summer offensive preparations and attacks near Lyman
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces undertook preparations and launched assaults near Lyman, including strikes on logistics and river crossings to isolate Ukrainian forces. Despite these efforts, ISW assessed that Russian forces failed to make tactically significant advances, maintaining Ukrainian control over Lyman and its railroad station, which kept market prices high but uncertain.
ISW: Russia unprepared for Lyman offensive amid Kremlin crackdown
June 30 plunges to 18%58%
ISW analysis of a Kremlin internal crackdown highlighted that Russia had not completed preparations for a Lyman offensive, suggesting a slowdown in Russian momentum. The “June 30” price dropped sharply from 76 % to 18 % over the following week.
ISW reports Kremlin crackdown amid Russian military setbacks near Lyman
December 31 drops to 66%13%
ISW noted increased internal criticism and repression in Russia due to military failures, including stalled preparations for an assault on Lyman. This indicated Russian difficulties and lowered market confidence in a near-term capture.
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if peace talks fail
December 31 jumps to 86%7%
Putin publicly stated Russia would seek to extend territorial gains in Ukraine if peace talks fail, signaling intent to continue offensives including around Lyman. This statement briefly supported market optimism for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian spring offensive preparations and attacks near Lyman reported by ISW
December 31 drops to 80%7%
ISW noted Russian forces preparing for a spring-summer offensive with attacks near Lyman, but also assessed that Russian forces were unlikely to make significant advances without seizing Lyman first, reflecting ongoing fighting and limited progress.
Russian advances stall amid Ukrainian resistance and counterattacks
May 31 drops to 12%13%
Reports indicated that Russian forces faced stiff Ukrainian resistance near Lyman, causing market prices to decline as the likelihood of Russian capture by May 31 diminished significantly.
Ukrainian forces repel major Russian attack in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 79%9%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units successfully repelled a large Russian assault involving over twenty vehicles, causing Russian retreat and reducing market confidence in imminent Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks in Lyman sector
December 31 drops to 77%5%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units repelled Russian assaults involving over twenty enemy vehicles, shattering Russian plans and forcing retreats. This Ukrainian defensive success caused a decline in market confidence for Russian capture by December 31.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia to disrupt Russian advances
June 30 plunges to 52%16%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks in key regions forced Russia to divert resources, complicating its offensive plans including the push towards Lyman. This development led to a notable decline in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by June 30 and December 31.
Peace talks stall as parties remain divided
June 30 drops to 55%13%
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine failed to produce a breakthrough, leading to a decline in the perceived likelihood of a near-term negotiated settlement for the territory.
Ukrainian forces repel major Russian assault in Lyman direction
December 31 drops to 77%11%
Ukrainian 66th Mechanized Brigade and allied units repelled a large Russian attack involving over twenty vehicles near Lyman, inflicting heavy losses and forcing some Russian troops to retreat, dampening market optimism about Russian capture.
Russian 1st Guards Tank Army launches mechanized assault near Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%2%
On March 19, Russian forces launched a battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Lyman direction, signaling the start of the anticipated spring-summer offensive. Despite heavy personnel and equipment commitment, ISW assessed that Russian forces were unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt, including Lyman, in 2026.
Russian spring-summer offensive begins with attacks near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 88%8%
Russian forces launched mechanized assaults near Lyman and Borova between March 17-19 as part of their spring-summer offensive. Ukrainian forces repelled attacks involving over twenty enemy vehicles, inflicting heavy losses and preventing Russian advances toward Lyman's outskirts.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 drops to 78%9%
Ukraine's successful counterattacks forced Russia to divert resources from offensive operations, reducing the likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman in the near term and causing a market price decline.
Russian military intensifies attacks on Ukrainian logistics hubs including Lyman area
December 31 drops to 80%7%
Russian forces escalated artillery barrages and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian defenses near Lyman, aiming to weaken resistance ahead of ground offensives, which supported market confidence in eventual Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian General Staff exaggerates battlefield gains near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%8%
ISW reported that Russian claims of capturing over half of Lyman were false, with no observed Russian presence since late February. This undermined confidence in Russian advances and led to a market price decline.
Ukrainian brigade reports no Russian presence in Lyman despite Gerasimov's claims
December 31 drops to 82%5%
A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson reported no Russian presence in Lyman, contradicting Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov's claims of over half the city being controlled by Russia. This discrepancy undermined confidence in Russian capture and caused market price declines.
ISW exposes Gerasimov's inflated battlefield claims
December 31 plunges to 60%27%
ISW reported that General Valery Gerasimov claimed advances near Lyman, Sloviansk, and Kostyantynivka, but frontline data showed no Russian presence in Lyman and minimal control in other areas, contributing to market skepticism.
Gerasimov repeats sweeping claim of major gains, including Lyman progress
December 31 jumps to 81%14%
Gerasimov’s March 16 speech again inflated Russian gains, briefly lifting market confidence (price rose from 67 % to 81 % by March 28).
Putin warns Russia will extend gains if talks fail
Putin’s statement that Russia would push to solidify territorial gains, including Lyman, if peace talks stalled reinforced market belief in a Russian capture, keeping the December 31 price above 80%.
Russian General Staff chief exaggerates Russian gains near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov claimed significant Russian advances near Lyman and other areas, asserting control over large portions of Lyman. However, ISW analysis contradicted these claims, showing only minimal Russian presence. This dissonance contributed to market volatility and skepticism about Russian capture prospects by mid-2026.
Ukraine’s allies agree on multilayered security guarantees in Paris
June 30 plunges to 39%28%
The announcement of a major security‑guarantee package for Ukraine signaled stronger Western support, lowering expectations that Russia could capture Lyman and pulling the June 30 price down from 67% to 39% over the following weeks.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Despite increased Russian assaults near Lyman, Ukrainian forces held positions, preventing Russian capture of the railroad station and causing market prices to stabilize at high but uncertain levels.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy pursues arms deals amid intensified Russian strikes
December 31 drops to 79%9%
President Zelenskyy sought more arms and air defense systems from allies as Russia increased drone and missile strikes, including near Lyman. Ukrainian counterattacks and improved defense capabilities tempered Russian advances, causing some market price volatility.
Russian attacks repelled in Lyman sector with significant losses
December 31 rises to 88%3%
Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack involving over twenty enemy vehicles in the Lyman direction, destroying equipment and forcing Russian troops to retreat, demonstrating strong Ukrainian defense and limiting Russian advances.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but failed to make confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian forces repelled assaults, maintaining control and causing market confidence to stabilize at a high level but without further increase.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian armored column in Lyman sector
December 31 dips to 86%2%
Ukrainian strikes forced a Russian convoy to retreat in the Lyman sector, demonstrating strong Ukrainian resistance and limiting Russian advances. This contributed to a stabilization and slight decline in market confidence for Russian capture by December 31.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but make no advances
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations near Lyman but did not advance, as reported by ISW. This indicated continued fighting but no territorial gains, sustaining uncertainty about Russian capture prospects and stabilizing market prices.
Ukrainian counter‑attacks stall Russian advance near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Reports of successful Ukrainian counter‑attacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia limited Russian manpower, causing a modest pull‑back in market confidence and a dip from 87% to 79% for the December‑31 outcome.
Russia readies new offensives as Iran war pressures Ukraine
December 31 rises to 87%1%
With U.S.-brokered peace talks on hold due to the Middle East conflict, Russian President Putin is expected to expand military gains, increasing market concern about Russian offensive operations.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk region
Ukraine launched counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region, forcing Russia to 'choose between defending against the Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating manpower and materiel for offensive operations elsewhere,' potentially spoiling Russian offensive plans.
Russia launches missile and drone attacks into Ukraine; drone wreckage hits railway station
Russia launched two missiles and 60 drones into Ukraine overnight into Tuesday morning. One missile and 8 drones impacted across five locations. Drone wreckage fell on a railway station in the Krasnodar region, according to the Krasnodar region's operational headquarters.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman without confirmed advances
December 31 rises to 88%2%
On March 3-4, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding villages but did not make confirmed advances. This maintained high market confidence but indicated a stalemate, keeping prices near their peak for the December 31 outcome.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions
December 31 drops to 79%8%
Ukraine intensified counteroffensives in key regions to disrupt Russian advances, forcing Russia to allocate resources defensively. This development reduced market confidence in Russia's ability to capture Lyman by year-end.
Russia claims territorial gains in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia
June 30 rises to 69%4%
Russian military leadership reported taking control of additional settlements, increasing pressure on Ukrainian defensive lines and boosting market expectations for a Russian capture of Lyman.
Russian Defense Minister outlines plans for further advances in Donetsk
June 30 jumps to 76%8%
Defense Minister Belousov's explicit declaration of plans for a quick push into Ukrainian-controlled parts of Donetsk reinforced expectations of a Russian breakthrough.
U.S.-brokered peace talks resume in Abu Dhabi amid Lyman fighting
June 30 drops to 65%6%
The restart of U.S.-brokered negotiations introduced uncertainty about Russian gains, causing a modest pullback in the June 30 price from 71% to 65% as traders weighed diplomatic prospects against battlefield momentum.
Russian military steps up artillery barrage and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine
Russian forces intensified bombardment and drone attacks in eastern regions, including near Lyman, as part of preparation for potential ground offensives. This military escalation raised concerns about Russian territorial gains.
ISW reports intensified Russian artillery strikes near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War noted a surge in artillery and drone attacks around Lyman, suggesting a preparation for a ground offensive. Traders saw this as increasing the likelihood of Russia capturing the station, pushing the December 31 price up.
U.S.-brokered peace talks stall amid conflicting territorial demands
June 30 plunges to 55%15%
Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine showed no breakthrough, with Russia demanding recognition of seized territories and Ukraine rejecting withdrawals. The stalemate contributed to uncertainty about the timing of Russian territorial gains, tempering market optimism for earlier capture dates.
U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi show progress but territorial disputes remain
December 31 drops to 79%8%
U.S.-brokered talks involving Russia and Ukraine made progress on security guarantees but failed to resolve key territorial issues, maintaining uncertainty about the conflict's outcome and impacting market prices downward.
Ukraine launches counterattacks in Dnipropetrovsk region
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Ukraine launched counterattacks in the Dnipropetrovsk region, forcing Russia to choose between defending against Ukrainian counterattacks and allocating resources for offensive operations elsewhere, potentially spoiling anticipated Russian offensives.
Russian official threatens Zelenskyy after alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin residence
Following claims of a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian presidential residence, Russian officials issued threats against Ukraine's leadership, signaling potential escalation. This heightened tensions and influenced market perceptions of conflict intensity near contested areas like Lyman.
Russian drone strike kills civilians in Dnipro amid peace talks
December 31 dips to 87%1%
A Russian drone strike killed at least 12 mineworkers in Dnipro, Ukraine, hours after Zelenskyy announced upcoming peace talks. The attack underscored ongoing hostilities despite diplomatic efforts, affecting market sentiment on Russian advances.
Zelenskyy says trilateral talks ended constructively and more are possible next week
December 31 drops to 81%5%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy described recent peace talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US as constructive, raising hopes for a diplomatic resolution but with unresolved territorial issues, impacting market optimism about Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
ISW reports ongoing fierce fighting near Lyman with Russian priority on offensive
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Institute for the Study of War highlighted intense combat near Lyman with Russian forces prioritizing the city for future offensives, sustaining market confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces claim capture of Myrnohrad and advance toward Lyman
Kremlin video claimed control of nearby settlements, reinforcing expectations of a push toward Lyman and sustaining high prices for the December‑31 outcome.
Ukrainian mil‑bloggers report Russian offensive stalling near Lyman
December 31 drops to 79%9%
A cluster of Ukrainian mil‑blog posts suggested Russian attacks had stalled near Lyman, which helped reverse the early‑March rally (price fell from 88 % to 79 %).
Russia uses nuclear-capable missile in 'massive strike' on Ukraine
Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Ukraine, including the use of a nuclear-capable missile system, demonstrating military strength and escalating the conflict, which influenced market perceptions of Russia's offensive capabilities near Lyman.
Russian drone attack claimed on Putin’s residence escalates tensions
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Russia claimed Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin’s residence, leading to hawkish threats from Russian officials and hardening of Russia’s negotiating stance. This increased perceived risk of intensified conflict, supporting higher market prices for Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but fail to advance
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and multiple surrounding settlements but did not advance, indicating stalled offensive efforts. This contributed to market price stabilization and slight declines.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman without territorial gains
ISW reported continued Russian attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas on February 27-28, with no significant advances or capture of the town, maintaining uncertainty about the outcome and sustaining market interest.
Russian forces attack near Lyman and surrounding areas
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces launched attacks near Lyman and its vicinity on February 26-27, 2026, signaling an intensified offensive in the area. This increased the market's confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by December 31, reflected in a sharp price rise from 27% to 86%.
Russian forces continue offensive near Lyman without confirmed advances
ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas but no confirmed territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about control of the Lyman railroad station. Market prices remained high but showed some volatility.
ISW reports Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv near Lyman; no confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked northeast of Kharkiv near Lyman, Staryi Karavan, Rai-Oleksandrivka, Kryva Luka, and Fedorivka Druha, but ISW found no confirmed advances. This continued to cast doubt on Russian claims of Lyman capture.
U.S.-led peace talks show progress but remain fragile amid Russian military pressure
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Peace negotiations hosted by U.S. President Trump brought Russia and Ukraine closer to a deal, boosting market confidence in a potential Russian capture of Lyman by year-end, though divisions remained on key issues.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but no confirmed advances
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not make confirmed territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about control of the railroad station. Market prices remained high but showed some volatility.
Russian forces conduct assaults near Lyman amid ongoing fighting
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas, with unconfirmed claims of advances. However, ISW and geolocated footage indicated Ukrainian control of key positions, suggesting no confirmed Russian capture of Lyman or its railroad station at this time. This contributed to initial market uncertainty and a rise in price reflecting increased conflict intensity.
Constructive trilateral peace talks held in Abu Dhabi involving US, Russia, Ukraine
December 31 rises to 87%1%
Two days of talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the US ended with constructive discussions on ending the war, raising hopes for a ceasefire and peace deal, which tempered market expectations for Russian territorial gains including Lyman.
ISW Assesses Russian Forces Likely Completed Capture of Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian forces likely completed the capture of Lyman after last observing Ukrainian forces on January 28, leading to a sharp price increase to 86%.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
Continued Russian attacks near Lyman without confirmed territorial gains maintained market uncertainty, with ISW noting no advances despite ongoing operations.
Russian forces continue attacks near Lyman but make no confirmed advances
On February 25, Russian forces attacked near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not advance. ISW reported ongoing offensive operations without territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about Russian capture prospects.
ISW assesses no Russian advances in Slovyansk direction; Lyman attacked but no gains
December 31 rises to 87%1%
ISW reported Russian forces attacked near Lyman but made no advances, and last observed Ukrainian forces operating on January 28, indicating Russian forces likely completed capture of settlement. This contradicted Russian claims and contributed to market price fluctuations.
Russian forces intensify assaults near Lyman amid claims of territorial gains
December 31 surges to 87%60%
Russian military increased attacks around Lyman, with Russian milbloggers and officials claiming advances in nearby settlements, boosting market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by December 31, 2025.
Russian forces conduct offensive operations near Lyman without confirmed capture
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction, including attacks near Lyman, but did not make confirmed advances. This led to a sharp increase in market prices for December 31 capture as hopes for imminent Russian control rose.
Russian forces launch attacks near Lyman but fail to capture it by early 2026
December 31 surges to 85%58%
ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman and infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain. A Russian milblogger claimed a failed deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, indicating ongoing fighting but no capture, which initially raised market optimism but reflected uncertainty.
Russian milblogger claims Russian 69th Division failed to seize Lyman by start of 2026
December 31 surges to 86%59%
A Russian milblogger reported that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division suffered the highest losses in its area and failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, contradicting Russian claims of progress. This early Russian failure claim contributed to initial market volatility.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman but fail to secure control
December 31 surges to 87%60%
Russian forces attacked multiple locations around Lyman, including near the city itself and surrounding villages, with milbloggers claiming advances. However, ISW observed no confirmed control of Lyman, indicating ongoing contested fighting that influenced a sharp rise in market confidence.
Russian forces attack near Lyman but fail to advance significantly
December 31 surges to 86%59%
ISW reported Russian attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas on February 23 but noted no significant territorial gains. A Russian milblogger claimed a failed deadline to seize Lyman by early 2026, indicating challenges for Russian forces. This tempered market optimism for near-term capture.
Russian military command fails to meet deadline to seize Lyman
December 31 surges to 85%58%
A Russian milblogger reported that the Russian 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to capture Lyman by the start of 2026, suffering heavy losses. This news caused a sharp increase in market price for December 31 outcome from 27% to 85%, reflecting heightened attention to the battle's progress.
Russian forces claim advances near Lyman amid ongoing offensive
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian milbloggers and reports indicated Russian forces advanced near Lyman and surrounding areas, raising market confidence in a near-term capture. However, ISW noted no confirmed territorial gains at Lyman itself, suggesting these were limited or contested advances.
Russian milblogger claims Russian forces failed to seize Lyman by start of 2026
December 31 drops to 80%6%
A Russian milblogger reported that the 69th Motorized Rifle Division failed to meet a deadline to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, indicating operational difficulties. This contributed to market volatility.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman but fail to secure advances
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas but did not achieve confirmed territorial gains, leading to increased market optimism but uncertainty about actual control.
Russian Milblogger Claims Russian Command Failed to Meet Lyman Seizure Deadline
December 31 surges to 71%21%
A Russian milblogger reported that the Russian military command failed to meet a deadline for the 69th Motorized Rifle Division to seize Lyman by the start of 2026, contributing to market uncertainty.
Ukrainian forces destroy Russian regiment on Lyman front, improving tactical position
December 31 surges to 86%36%
Ukrainian Armed Forces, with intelligence support, wiped out a Russian regiment and captured troops near Lyman, limiting Russian maneuverability and boosting Ukrainian defense, causing market optimism to peak.
Russia readies new offensive toward eastern Donetsk, including Lyman
December 31 rises to 88%2%
Further reporting indicated Russian forces were massing reserves and preparing a renewed push in eastern Donetsk, specifically targeting Lyman, reinforcing market optimism for a capture before year‑end.
Gerasimov says Russia now controls 70 % of Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 70 % of Lyman. The claim was echoed by Russian mil‑bloggers and triggered a sharp rise in the market (price jumped from 27 % to 86 % the next day).
Russia intensifies artillery and drone strikes ahead of expected offensive in eastern Donetsk
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War reported increased Russian artillery barrages and drone strikes aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks, raising expectations of a Russian push to capture remaining Ukrainian-held areas including Lyman. This heightened anticipation caused a sharp rise in market prices for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31.
ISW reports ongoing Russian attacks near Lyman with no confirmed gains
June 30 drops to 65%6%
The ISW February 22 assessment noted continued Russian attacks northeast and southeast of Lyman but no confirmed advances. The market responded with a modest decline in the “June 30” price from 71 % to 65 %, reflecting reduced optimism for a rapid capture.
ISW maps show Russian artillery intensifying near Lyman
December 31 jumps to 92%6%
The Institute for the Study of War released a battlefield assessment highlighting a surge in Russian artillery barrages around Lyman, suggesting imminent ground attacks. This reinforced market optimism, contributing to the peak of 92% on February 21 for the December‑31 contract.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman aiming to encircle city
December 31 surges to 87%60%
Russian 20th Combined Arms Army attempted breakthroughs northwest of Lyman to cut off the city and advance toward surrounding strategic points, signaling a focused effort to capture Lyman. This increased military activity raised market confidence in near-term Russian capture.
Russian military claims significant territorial gains including Lyman area
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Chief of General Staff Gerasimov claimed Russian forces seized 70% of Lyman and advanced significantly in the region, boosting market confidence sharply. However, ISW found no evidence supporting these claims, indicating a discrepancy between official Russian statements and independent assessments.
ISW reports Russian artillery and drone barrage intensifies near Lyman
The Institute for the Study of War noted a sharp increase in artillery and drone strikes aimed at weakening Ukrainian defenses around Lyman, reinforcing market optimism and pushing the June‑30 price to a peak of 76%.
U.S. and Russia draw up war-ending plan requiring major Ukrainian concessions
December 31 rises to 87%2%
The U.S. and Russia have drawn up a plan aimed at ending the war in Ukraine that calls for major concessions from Kyiv, including granting some demands the Kremlin has made repeatedly since it invaded early in 2022. Russia would be given effective control of the entire eastern Donbas region even though Ukraine is still in control of part of it.
Russian artillery barrage and drone strikes intensify in eastern Ukraine
December 31 drops to 86%7%
Russian forces stepped up artillery barrages and drone strikes in eastern Ukraine, seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before potential ground attacks, contributing to market concern about Russian offensive momentum.
Russia intensifies offensive in Donetsk region
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian military officials announced plans to accelerate the tempo of their offensive in the Donetsk region, directly threatening Ukrainian-held areas including Lyman.
Russian forces intensify attacks in Lyman direction with mixed reports
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian Armed Forces reported successes in Lyman and nearby areas, causing a sharp increase in market confidence for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31. However, reports were contradictory, reflecting uncertainty about the actual control.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman, boosting capture odds
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian military initiated attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, raising market confidence in a potential capture as reflected by a sharp price increase from 27% to 86% Yes for December 31 outcome.
Russia claims Ukrainian drone attack on Putin residence; Zelenskyy dismisses as disinformation
December 31 dips to 85%1%
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov alleged Ukraine launched a drone attack on Putin's state residence in Novgorod region on Dec 29. Dmitry Medvedev posted personal threats against Zelenskyy. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said Russia hasn't provided any plausible evidence to its accusations.
Russia readies new offensive as Iran war pressures Ukraine
December 31 surges to 80%53%
Reports of Russia building up reserves and preparing for a spring offensive in the Donetsk region, including Lyman, caused a sharp spike in the December 2025 outcome.
ISW reports Russian artillery buildup near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The Institute for the Study of War noted a surge in Russian artillery and drone strikes aimed at Lyman, suggesting an imminent offensive and driving the December‑31 price up sharply.
Russia prepares new offensives in eastern Ukraine amid Iran war distractions
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated Russia was readying renewed military offensives in eastern Donetsk, including near Lyman, as Ukraine faced pressure from the Iran war and stalled peace talks. This buildup increased market confidence in Russian capture of Lyman by year-end.
Russia prepares for renewed offensive in eastern Donetsk amid Iran war distractions
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated Russia was building up reserves and increasing artillery and drone strikes to weaken Ukrainian defenses in eastern Donetsk, including near Lyman, raising market expectations of a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian General Staff falsely claims major advances near Lyman and Kupiansk
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov claimed significant Russian territorial gains near Lyman and other areas, but ISW assessments contradicted these claims, showing minimal Russian control. This discrepancy caused a sharp increase in market optimism followed by skepticism.
Russia prepares for renewed offensives in eastern Donetsk region
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Reports indicated that Russia was building up reserves and preparing for a new push to capture parts of eastern Donetsk, including areas near Lyman, with increased artillery and drone strikes to weaken Ukrainian defenses. This raised market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian artillery and drone barrage intensifies near Lyman
December 31 surges to 86%59%
ISW reported a surge in Russian artillery and drone strikes targeting the Lyman sector, signalling a possible push to capture the town and its railway station. The heightened threat drove the Yes price for the December 31 outcome from 27% to 86%.
U.S. and Russia draw up peace plan requiring major Ukrainian concessions
December 31 surges to 52%25%
A draft peace proposal was leaked showing Russia seeking control of eastern Donbas and Ukraine limiting its military, pressuring Zelenskyy and increasing market uncertainty about the conflict's resolution path.
Russia readies new offensives as Iran war disrupts Ukraine peace talks
December 31 surges to 86%59%
With U.S.-brokered peace talks on hold due to the Middle East conflict, Russian President Putin is expected to expand military gains. The ISW noted Russian troops have stepped up artillery barrage and drone strikes seeking to weaken Ukrainian defenses before ground attacks.
Russian official threatens Zelenskyy after alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin's residence
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Following claims by Russia of a Ukrainian drone attack on President Putin's residence, Russian officials issued threats against Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, signaling a hardening of Russia's stance and potential escalation in conflict, which increased market optimism for Russian territorial gains including Lyman by December 31.
US and Russia agree to reestablish military dialogue after Ukraine talks
December 31 surges to 86%59%
The US and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue for the first time in over four years, signaling a potential thaw and progress in peace efforts, which initially boosted market confidence in Russia capturing Lyman by year-end.
Russia readies new offensive in eastern Donetsk as Iran war diverts U.S. attention
December 31 surges to 86%59%
AP reported that Moscow was preparing a renewed push in the eastern Donetsk region, citing increased artillery and drone activity. The prospect of a fresh Russian assault raised expectations that Lyman could fall before year‑end, driving the December‑31 price up from 27% to 86%.
Ukraine destroys Russian regiment and captures troops near Lyman
Ukrainian forces, including the 3rd Army Corps and Defense Intelligence, successfully destroyed a Russian regiment and captured many troops in the Lyman direction, improving their tactical position and limiting Russian maneuverability. This demonstrated Ukrainian strength in the area, reducing the likelihood of Russian capture of Lyman in the near term and impacting market prices for the May and June outcomes.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Lyman, aiming to capture key railway hub
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian troops increased offensive operations near Lyman, a strategic railway junction, aiming to break Ukrainian defenses and secure the area. This heightened military activity raised market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces launch offensive near Lyman, claim advances
December 31 surges to 86%59%
Russian forces conducted attacks near Lyman and surrounding areas, with milbloggers claiming advances close to Lyman and other nearby settlements. This raised market confidence sharply for Russia capturing Lyman by December 31, 2026.
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