Traders assign a 99.8% implied probability to "Nothing" in May because the month passed without major geopolitical escalations, legislative breakthroughs, high-profile elections, or significant policy announcements from key capitals. Diplomatic channels stayed steady, ongoing conflicts produced no decisive shifts, and no unexpected events such as summits or executive actions disrupted the baseline. This near-certain consensus mirrors the absence of catalysts that historically move these markets. Scenarios that could still influence resolution include late-verified incidents like sudden leadership changes or unreported diplomatic moves within the resolution window, though none have emerged to date.