Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a sharp 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Recent communications and the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections signal a cautious stance, with the median dot plot projecting limited easing later in the year. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied odds if inflation moderates or labor market data weakens materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 14%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.3%
Pause–Cut–Cut 4.2%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
22%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
4%
Other
16%
Pause–Pause–Pause 73%
Other 14%
Pause–Cut–Pause 4.3%
Pause–Cut–Cut 4.2%
最新
最新
2026-09-16
Cut–Pause–Pause
$120 交易量
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$211 交易量
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 交易量
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$136 交易量
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$504 交易量
73%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$181 交易量
22%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 交易量
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 交易量
4%
Other
$148 交易量
16%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a sharp 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Recent communications and the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections signal a cautious stance, with the median dot plot projecting limited easing later in the year. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied odds if inflation moderates or labor market data weakens materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$1,738结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a sharp 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Recent communications and the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections signal a cautious stance, with the median dot plot projecting limited easing later in the year. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied odds if inflation moderates or labor market data weakens materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$1,738结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by a sharp 17.9% surge in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, have reinforced trader expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold the federal funds rate steady at the 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. Recent communications and the March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections signal a cautious stance, with the median dot plot projecting limited easing later in the year. The May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied odds if inflation moderates or labor market data weakens materially.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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