The tight clustering of implied probabilities among France, Spain, England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil reflects their comparable recent international form, squad depth, and experience heading into the expanded 48-team 2026 World Cup. Spain’s commanding Euro 2024 title run and current FIFA ranking edge have kept them level with France, whose blend of attacking talent and tournament pedigree sustains strong trader consensus. England’s consistent qualifying results and generational depth, alongside Argentina’s defending-champion pedigree and Brazil’s traditional attacking strength, create multiple realistic paths to the trophy. Germany’s resurgence and Portugal’s attacking options further compress the top tier, as the new format rewards depth and leaves little separation among elite sides.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于法国 17.1%
西班牙 16.4%
英格兰 11.2%
葡萄牙 9.6%
$1,447,682,117 交易量
$1,447,682,117 交易量
法国
17%
西班牙
16%
英格兰
11%
葡萄牙
10%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
8%
德国
6%
荷兰
4%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
摩洛哥
2%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
土耳其
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
克罗地亚
1%
塞内加尔
1%
Austria
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
South Korea
<1%
加纳
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
捷克
<1%
埃及
<1%
伊朗
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
法国 17.1%
西班牙 16.4%
英格兰 11.2%
葡萄牙 9.6%
$1,447,682,117 交易量
$1,447,682,117 交易量
法国
17%
西班牙
16%
英格兰
11%
葡萄牙
10%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
8%
德国
6%
荷兰
4%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
摩洛哥
2%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
土耳其
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
克罗地亚
1%
塞内加尔
1%
Austria
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
<1%
South Korea
<1%
加纳
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
捷克
<1%
埃及
<1%
伊朗
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight clustering of implied probabilities among France, Spain, England, Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil reflects their comparable recent international form, squad depth, and experience heading into the expanded 48-team 2026 World Cup. Spain’s commanding Euro 2024 title run and current FIFA ranking edge have kept them level with France, whose blend of attacking talent and tournament pedigree sustains strong trader consensus. England’s consistent qualifying results and generational depth, alongside Argentina’s defending-champion pedigree and Brazil’s traditional attacking strength, create multiple realistic paths to the trophy. Germany’s resurgence and Portugal’s attacking options further compress the top tier, as the new format rewards depth and leaves little separation among elite sides.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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