Latest Copernicus and NOAA analyses show May 2026 global surface temperatures tracking near 1.35 °C above the 20th-century baseline, placing the month behind only the 2024 record while comfortably ahead of all prior years. Persistent background warming, combined with above-average sea-surface temperatures in key regions, has sustained this ranking through the final weeks of the month. With final dataset releases expected in early June, the 94.5 % market-implied probability for second-hottest reflects the narrow but consistent gap observed in preliminary reanalysis. Only a substantial upward revision to 2024 or an unexpected downward correction to 2026 data could alter the outcome, scenarios viewed as low-probability given cross-agency agreement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2nd hottest 95%
3rd hottest 5.2%
4th or lower <1%
1st hottest <1%
$227,334 交易量
$227,334 交易量
2026-06-10
1st hottest
<1%
2nd hottest
95%
3rd hottest
5%
4th or lower
<1%
2nd hottest 95%
3rd hottest 5.2%
4th or lower <1%
1st hottest <1%
$227,334 交易量
$227,334 交易量
2026-06-10
1st hottest
$23,018 交易量
<1%
2nd hottest
$10,783 交易量
95%
3rd hottest
$67,492 交易量
5%
4th or lower
$126,041 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Latest Copernicus and NOAA analyses show May 2026 global surface temperatures tracking near 1.35 °C above the 20th-century baseline, placing the month behind only the 2024 record while comfortably ahead of all prior years. Persistent background warming, combined with above-average sea-surface temperatures in key regions, has sustained this ranking through the final weeks of the month. With final dataset releases expected in early June, the 94.5 % market-implied probability for second-hottest reflects the narrow but consistent gap observed in preliminary reanalysis. Only a substantial upward revision to 2024 or an unexpected downward correction to 2026 data could alter the outcome, scenarios viewed as low-probability given cross-agency agreement.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ET
交易量
$227,334结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Latest Copernicus and NOAA analyses show May 2026 global surface temperatures tracking near 1.35 °C above the 20th-century baseline, placing the month behind only the 2024 record while comfortably ahead of all prior years. Persistent background warming, combined with above-average sea-surface temperatures in key regions, has sustained this ranking through the final weeks of the month. With final dataset releases expected in early June, the 94.5 % market-implied probability for second-hottest reflects the narrow but consistent gap observed in preliminary reanalysis. Only a substantial upward revision to 2024 or an unexpected downward correction to 2026 data could alter the outcome, scenarios viewed as low-probability given cross-agency agreement.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
交易量
$227,334结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Copernicus and NOAA analyses show May 2026 global surface temperatures tracking near 1.35 °C above the 20th-century baseline, placing the month behind only the 2024 record while comfortably ahead of all prior years. Persistent background warming, combined with above-average sea-surface temperatures in key regions, has sustained this ranking through the final weeks of the month. With final dataset releases expected in early June, the 94.5 % market-implied probability for second-hottest reflects the narrow but consistent gap observed in preliminary reanalysis. Only a substantial upward revision to 2024 or an unexpected downward correction to 2026 data could alter the outcome, scenarios viewed as low-probability given cross-agency agreement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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