Recent observational data from Copernicus and NOAA place the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly near 1.12°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, aligning with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C outcome. This positioning stems from the ongoing shift out of ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions toward emerging El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific during May–July 2026, which has yet to produce the stronger warming typically seen later in such events. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated but below 2024 peaks, while land-ocean combined measurements reflect typical seasonal cooling relative to boreal spring maxima. Model consensus and historical May analogs support limited upside deviation this month, with full agency reports expected to confirm the range shortly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 79%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 2.6%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$152,558 交易量
$152,558 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
79%
1.15–1.19ºC
3%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 79%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 2.6%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$152,558 交易量
$152,558 交易量
2026-06-10
<1.10ºC
$48,917 交易量
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
$20,540 交易量
79%
1.15–1.19ºC
$24,411 交易量
3%
1.20–1.24ºC
$19,325 交易量
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$17,655 交易量
<1%
>1.29ºC
$21,709 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus and NOAA place the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly near 1.12°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, aligning with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C outcome. This positioning stems from the ongoing shift out of ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions toward emerging El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific during May–July 2026, which has yet to produce the stronger warming typically seen later in such events. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated but below 2024 peaks, while land-ocean combined measurements reflect typical seasonal cooling relative to boreal spring maxima. Model consensus and historical May analogs support limited upside deviation this month, with full agency reports expected to confirm the range shortly.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$152,558结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from Copernicus and NOAA place the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly near 1.12°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, aligning with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C outcome. This positioning stems from the ongoing shift out of ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions toward emerging El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific during May–July 2026, which has yet to produce the stronger warming typically seen later in such events. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated but below 2024 peaks, while land-ocean combined measurements reflect typical seasonal cooling relative to boreal spring maxima. Model consensus and historical May analogs support limited upside deviation this month, with full agency reports expected to confirm the range shortly.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$152,558结束日期
2026-06-10市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from Copernicus and NOAA place the May 2026 global surface temperature anomaly near 1.12°C above the 1850-1900 baseline, aligning with the market's dominant 1.10–1.14°C outcome. This positioning stems from the ongoing shift out of ENSO-neutral or weak La Niña conditions toward emerging El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific during May–July 2026, which has yet to produce the stronger warming typically seen later in such events. Sea-surface temperatures remain elevated but below 2024 peaks, while land-ocean combined measurements reflect typical seasonal cooling relative to boreal spring maxima. Model consensus and historical May analogs support limited upside deviation this month, with full agency reports expected to confirm the range shortly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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