Recent analyses project 2026 as the second-warmest year on record, with trader consensus aligning closely to model estimates of a 1.37–1.58 °C anomaly above pre-industrial levels. Underlying anthropogenic warming continues at an accelerated rate, yet the emerging El Niño—now under official watch with an 82 % chance of developing by May–July—has not intensified early enough to eclipse the 2024 record set during the prior strong event. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioned rapidly in spring 2026, and while a potentially strong or super El Niño could add further warmth through year-end, its primary temperature boost is expected later. This timing, combined with 2025’s already elevated baseline, positions 2026 between the top two years in most forecasts, with only modest odds of a new record or a drop to fourth or lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2 62%
1 32%
4 2.9%
3 2.4%
$2,901,753 交易量
$2,901,753 交易量
2026-12-31
1
32%
2
62%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6或以下
2%
2 62%
1 32%
4 2.9%
3 2.4%
$2,901,753 交易量
$2,901,753 交易量
2026-12-31
1
$463,560 交易量
32%
2
$335,370 交易量
62%
3
$449,950 交易量
2%
4
$432,053 交易量
3%
5
$750,030 交易量
1%
6或以下
$470,791 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent analyses project 2026 as the second-warmest year on record, with trader consensus aligning closely to model estimates of a 1.37–1.58 °C anomaly above pre-industrial levels. Underlying anthropogenic warming continues at an accelerated rate, yet the emerging El Niño—now under official watch with an 82 % chance of developing by May–July—has not intensified early enough to eclipse the 2024 record set during the prior strong event. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioned rapidly in spring 2026, and while a potentially strong or super El Niño could add further warmth through year-end, its primary temperature boost is expected later. This timing, combined with 2025’s already elevated baseline, positions 2026 between the top two years in most forecasts, with only modest odds of a new record or a drop to fourth or lower.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$2,901,753结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent analyses project 2026 as the second-warmest year on record, with trader consensus aligning closely to model estimates of a 1.37–1.58 °C anomaly above pre-industrial levels. Underlying anthropogenic warming continues at an accelerated rate, yet the emerging El Niño—now under official watch with an 82 % chance of developing by May–July—has not intensified early enough to eclipse the 2024 record set during the prior strong event. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioned rapidly in spring 2026, and while a potentially strong or super El Niño could add further warmth through year-end, its primary temperature boost is expected later. This timing, combined with 2025’s already elevated baseline, positions 2026 between the top two years in most forecasts, with only modest odds of a new record or a drop to fourth or lower.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,901,753结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent analyses project 2026 as the second-warmest year on record, with trader consensus aligning closely to model estimates of a 1.37–1.58 °C anomaly above pre-industrial levels. Underlying anthropogenic warming continues at an accelerated rate, yet the emerging El Niño—now under official watch with an 82 % chance of developing by May–July—has not intensified early enough to eclipse the 2024 record set during the prior strong event. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioned rapidly in spring 2026, and while a potentially strong or super El Niño could add further warmth through year-end, its primary temperature boost is expected later. This timing, combined with 2025’s already elevated baseline, positions 2026 between the top two years in most forecasts, with only modest odds of a new record or a drop to fourth or lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题