Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices have never been removed by Senate impeachment despite dozens of petitions filed in recent years, including multiple targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited initiation of such proceedings primarily to the Prosecutor General while preserving the two-thirds Senate majority requirement, reinforcing longstanding institutional thresholds. Opposition efforts to build a supportive Senate majority ahead of 2026 elections remain prospective rather than immediate, with related legislative proposals deferred and the STF itself preparing potential procedural adjustments. These structural and political factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for no removal before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$79,753 交易量
$79,753 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$79,753 交易量
$79,753 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices have never been removed by Senate impeachment despite dozens of petitions filed in recent years, including multiple targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited initiation of such proceedings primarily to the Prosecutor General while preserving the two-thirds Senate majority requirement, reinforcing longstanding institutional thresholds. Opposition efforts to build a supportive Senate majority ahead of 2026 elections remain prospective rather than immediate, with related legislative proposals deferred and the STF itself preparing potential procedural adjustments. These structural and political factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for no removal before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
交易量
$79,753结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices have never been removed by Senate impeachment despite dozens of petitions filed in recent years, including multiple targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited initiation of such proceedings primarily to the Prosecutor General while preserving the two-thirds Senate majority requirement, reinforcing longstanding institutional thresholds. Opposition efforts to build a supportive Senate majority ahead of 2026 elections remain prospective rather than immediate, with related legislative proposals deferred and the STF itself preparing potential procedural adjustments. These structural and political factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for no removal before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$79,753结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices have never been removed by Senate impeachment despite dozens of petitions filed in recent years, including multiple targeting Alexandre de Moraes. A December 2025 ruling by Justice Gilmar Mendes limited initiation of such proceedings primarily to the Prosecutor General while preserving the two-thirds Senate majority requirement, reinforcing longstanding institutional thresholds. Opposition efforts to build a supportive Senate majority ahead of 2026 elections remain prospective rather than immediate, with related legislative proposals deferred and the STF itself preparing potential procedural adjustments. These structural and political factors underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for no removal before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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