Rising energy prices and inflation expectations stemming from the Iran conflict have prompted ECB policymakers to signal a likely 25-basis-point deposit facility rate increase at the June 10-11 meeting, lifting the current 2.00% level. April communications from President Lagarde and Governing Council members highlighted debate over tightening to curb second-round effects, with Bundesbank President Nagel and others conditioning action on updated June projections. Economist surveys and futures markets now align on this modest hike as the baseline, though a sustained drop in energy costs or softer core inflation data could still support a hold. The meeting itself serves as the immediate catalyst for resolution.