The 10-year Treasury yield currently stands near 4.45 percent amid a policy backdrop of Federal Reserve rate cuts offset by persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits. Market-implied expectations for additional easing through year-end 2026 have supported modest downside pressure, yet long-term yields have remained anchored by supply concerns and a widening term premium reflecting growth and inflation risks farther out the curve. Recent labor-market softening and core CPI readings continue to shape the near-term path, while upcoming FOMC meetings and monthly employment and inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift the lowest level reached before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$216,206 交易量
2026-12-31
3.9%
48%
3.8%
38%
3.7%
45%
3.6%
30%
3.5%
23%
3.0%
15%
2.0%
8%
1.0%
4%
$216,206 交易量
3.9%
$40,790 交易量
48%
3.8%
$39,782 交易量
38%
3.7%
$26,443 交易量
45%
3.6%
$4,900 交易量
30%
3.5%
$31,778 交易量
23%
3.0%
$724 交易量
15%
2.0%
$368 交易量
8%
1.0%
$39,661 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield currently stands near 4.45 percent amid a policy backdrop of Federal Reserve rate cuts offset by persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits. Market-implied expectations for additional easing through year-end 2026 have supported modest downside pressure, yet long-term yields have remained anchored by supply concerns and a widening term premium reflecting growth and inflation risks farther out the curve. Recent labor-market softening and core CPI readings continue to shape the near-term path, while upcoming FOMC meetings and monthly employment and inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift the lowest level reached before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$216,206结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield currently stands near 4.45 percent amid a policy backdrop of Federal Reserve rate cuts offset by persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits. Market-implied expectations for additional easing through year-end 2026 have supported modest downside pressure, yet long-term yields have remained anchored by supply concerns and a widening term premium reflecting growth and inflation risks farther out the curve. Recent labor-market softening and core CPI readings continue to shape the near-term path, while upcoming FOMC meetings and monthly employment and inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift the lowest level reached before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$216,206结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield currently stands near 4.45 percent amid a policy backdrop of Federal Reserve rate cuts offset by persistent inflation above the 2 percent target and elevated Treasury issuance tied to fiscal deficits. Market-implied expectations for additional easing through year-end 2026 have supported modest downside pressure, yet long-term yields have remained anchored by supply concerns and a widening term premium reflecting growth and inflation risks farther out the curve. Recent labor-market softening and core CPI readings continue to shape the near-term path, while upcoming FOMC meetings and monthly employment and inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift the lowest level reached before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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