The Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50–3.75% at its April 29 meeting, citing elevated inflation partly driven by higher global energy prices amid Middle East developments, has anchored trader expectations for the June 16–17 FOMC gathering. Solid economic expansion and a still-resilient labor market have reinforced the pause, with futures and prediction markets pricing a roughly 96–98% probability of no change at the June session. The Fed’s latest dot plot continues to signal one cut for 2026 overall, though market-implied odds for any easing this year remain subdued given persistent inflation risks. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC statement, updated economic projections, and intervening data on CPI and employment that could shift the balance between inflation and growth concerns.