The closely matched market-implied odds around 1.10–1.19°C reflect uncertainty in the precise June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly amid the rapid transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to a developing El Niño, which official NOAA and IRI forecasts place at an 82% likelihood by May–July. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have already surged above the El Niño threshold in recent weeks, providing a warming influence that typically elevates global anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C within months, layered atop the underlying long-term trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Recent observations, including February 2026 at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, and multi-model projections for 2026 annual means near 1.3–1.5°C, support trader positioning in these bins, while model spread on exact intensification timing and regional feedbacks keeps probabilities balanced ahead of mid-month updates from agencies like NOAA.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 47%
1.25–1.29ºC 43%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
<1.10ºC 31%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
31%
1.10–1.14ºC
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
28%
1.20–1.24ºC
31%
1.25–1.29ºC
35%
>1.29ºC
28%
>1.29ºC 47%
1.25–1.29ºC 43%
1.10–1.14ºC 36%
<1.10ºC 31%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
$5 交易量
31%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 交易量
36%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 交易量
28%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 交易量
31%
1.25–1.29ºC
$64 交易量
35%
>1.29ºC
$352 交易量
28%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The closely matched market-implied odds around 1.10–1.19°C reflect uncertainty in the precise June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly amid the rapid transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to a developing El Niño, which official NOAA and IRI forecasts place at an 82% likelihood by May–July. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have already surged above the El Niño threshold in recent weeks, providing a warming influence that typically elevates global anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C within months, layered atop the underlying long-term trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Recent observations, including February 2026 at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, and multi-model projections for 2026 annual means near 1.3–1.5°C, support trader positioning in these bins, while model spread on exact intensification timing and regional feedbacks keeps probabilities balanced ahead of mid-month updates from agencies like NOAA.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$593结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The closely matched market-implied odds around 1.10–1.19°C reflect uncertainty in the precise June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly amid the rapid transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to a developing El Niño, which official NOAA and IRI forecasts place at an 82% likelihood by May–July. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have already surged above the El Niño threshold in recent weeks, providing a warming influence that typically elevates global anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C within months, layered atop the underlying long-term trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Recent observations, including February 2026 at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, and multi-model projections for 2026 annual means near 1.3–1.5°C, support trader positioning in these bins, while model spread on exact intensification timing and regional feedbacks keeps probabilities balanced ahead of mid-month updates from agencies like NOAA.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$593结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around 1.10–1.19°C reflect uncertainty in the precise June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly amid the rapid transition from ENSO-neutral conditions to a developing El Niño, which official NOAA and IRI forecasts place at an 82% likelihood by May–July. Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures have already surged above the El Niño threshold in recent weeks, providing a warming influence that typically elevates global anomalies by 0.1–0.2°C within months, layered atop the underlying long-term trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Recent observations, including February 2026 at 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, and multi-model projections for 2026 annual means near 1.3–1.5°C, support trader positioning in these bins, while model spread on exact intensification timing and regional feedbacks keeps probabilities balanced ahead of mid-month updates from agencies like NOAA.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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