Recent April CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus, has anchored expectations for May amid persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, with gasoline costs surging over 28%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a May annual rate near 4.2%, while forecasters highlight upside risks from oil pass-through, shelter components, and tariff effects on goods. The tight clustering of Polymarket-implied odds around 4.2% and 4.3% reflects trader assessment of these dynamics ahead of the June 10 release, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below 4.1% or above 4.4% given the base effects and moderating monthly trends observed in prior prints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.2% 43%
4.3% 43%
≥4.4% 11%
4.1% 6.0%
$346,835 交易量
$346,835 交易量
≤3.3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
43%
4.3%
43%
≥4.4%
11%
4.2% 43%
4.3% 43%
≥4.4% 11%
4.1% 6.0%
$346,835 交易量
$346,835 交易量
≤3.3%
<1%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
<1%
3.7%
<1%
3.8%
<1%
3.9%
<1%
4.0%
1%
4.1%
6%
4.2%
43%
4.3%
43%
≥4.4%
11%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市场开放时间: May 12, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in May 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on June 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April CPI data at 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and above the 3.7% consensus, has anchored expectations for May amid persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, with gasoline costs surging over 28%. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to a May annual rate near 4.2%, while forecasters highlight upside risks from oil pass-through, shelter components, and tariff effects on goods. The tight clustering of Polymarket-implied odds around 4.2% and 4.3% reflects trader assessment of these dynamics ahead of the June 10 release, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below 4.1% or above 4.4% given the base effects and moderating monthly trends observed in prior prints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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