Mark Sutcliffe, the incumbent mayor since 2022, holds an 80% implied probability in trader consensus following his formal nomination filing on May 25, 2026. The election is scheduled for October 26, 2026, with nomination filings opening May 1. Jeff Leiper, a sitting city councillor, filed his papers on the first day and trails at 17.5%, while the remaining declared candidates each sit below 2%. A mid-May Liaison Strategies poll of 1,000 Ottawa residents showed Sutcliffe leading among decided voters at 37-46% compared with Leiper’s 32-37%, though nearly half remained undecided at the time. Municipal races in Ontario have historically favored incumbents through name recognition and established fundraising networks, factors reflected in the current market pricing ahead of the August 21 nomination deadline.