Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day and including a 1,000-prisoner swap per side, yet Russian officials immediately stated that a lasting agreement remained “a very long way off.” Hostilities resumed with intensified Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure shortly afterward. Ongoing talks have stalled over territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with both sides maintaining maximalist positions amid continued ground offensives. Traders reflect this entrenched stalemate in low implied probabilities for a formal ceasefire agreement by year-end, absent major de-escalation signals or breakthroughs in bilateral or trilateral negotiations before winter.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,251,736 交易量
2026-12-31
6月30日
6%
10月31日
32%
12月31日
49%
$2,251,736 交易量
6月30日
$488,682 交易量
6%
10月31日
$111,772 交易量
32%
12月31日
$834,047 交易量
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day and including a 1,000-prisoner swap per side, yet Russian officials immediately stated that a lasting agreement remained “a very long way off.” Hostilities resumed with intensified Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure shortly afterward. Ongoing talks have stalled over territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with both sides maintaining maximalist positions amid continued ground offensives. Traders reflect this entrenched stalemate in low implied probabilities for a formal ceasefire agreement by year-end, absent major de-escalation signals or breakthroughs in bilateral or trilateral negotiations before winter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$2,251,736结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day and including a 1,000-prisoner swap per side, yet Russian officials immediately stated that a lasting agreement remained “a very long way off.” Hostilities resumed with intensified Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure shortly afterward. Ongoing talks have stalled over territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with both sides maintaining maximalist positions amid continued ground offensives. Traders reflect this entrenched stalemate in low implied probabilities for a formal ceasefire agreement by year-end, absent major de-escalation signals or breakthroughs in bilateral or trilateral negotiations before winter.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,251,736结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-mediated diplomacy produced a three-day ceasefire from May 9–11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day and including a 1,000-prisoner swap per side, yet Russian officials immediately stated that a lasting agreement remained “a very long way off.” Hostilities resumed with intensified Russian missile and drone strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure shortly afterward. Ongoing talks have stalled over territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with both sides maintaining maximalist positions amid continued ground offensives. Traders reflect this entrenched stalemate in low implied probabilities for a formal ceasefire agreement by year-end, absent major de-escalation signals or breakthroughs in bilateral or trilateral negotiations before winter.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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