Ukraine’s ongoing martial law, extended by parliament until August 2026, prohibits presidential elections and prevents termination of the incumbent’s powers under the constitution, leaving no legal pathway for a leadership change before June 30. Traders price this structural constraint at 98.8 percent probability of no removal, consistent with repeated parliamentary extensions and low domestic support for voting amid active conflict. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen event such as sudden resignation, health-related incapacity, or a rapid ceasefire enabling early elections, none of which current conditions indicate.