Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to 1.2–1.5 million votes in the May 26 Republican primary runoff because Texas GOP runoff participation has historically fallen 30–40 percent from the March primary, with roughly 2.2 million Republicans voting earlier this cycle. The Paxton–Cornyn contest, while high-profile, produced no evidence of unusually strong mobilization or crossover interest that would push totals outside this band. Early voting data and polling of likely runoff participants aligned with this range through late May. Outcomes above 1.5 million or below 1.2 million would require either an unexpected late surge in absentee or Election Day turnout or a sharper-than-normal drop-off, neither of which materialized in comparable prior Texas Republican runoffs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于120万–150万 99.0%
150万–180万 <1%
180万–210万 <1%
2.4–2.7百万 <1%
$152,738 交易量
$152,738 交易量
2026-05-26
<60万
<1%
60–90万
<1%
90万–120万
<1%
120万–150万
99%
150万–180万
<1%
180万–210万
<1%
210万–240万
<1%
2.4–2.7百万
<1%
270万+
<1%
120万–150万 99.0%
150万–180万 <1%
180万–210万 <1%
2.4–2.7百万 <1%
$152,738 交易量
$152,738 交易量
2026-05-26
<60万
$2,626 交易量
<1%
60–90万
$55,261 交易量
<1%
90万–120万
$5,738 交易量
<1%
120万–150万
$42,473 交易量
99%
150万–180万
$5,103 交易量
<1%
180万–210万
$4,929 交易量
<1%
210万–240万
$10,092 交易量
<1%
2.4–2.7百万
$10,345 交易量
<1%
270万+
$16,171 交易量
<1%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to 1.2–1.5 million votes in the May 26 Republican primary runoff because Texas GOP runoff participation has historically fallen 30–40 percent from the March primary, with roughly 2.2 million Republicans voting earlier this cycle. The Paxton–Cornyn contest, while high-profile, produced no evidence of unusually strong mobilization or crossover interest that would push totals outside this band. Early voting data and polling of likely runoff participants aligned with this range through late May. Outcomes above 1.5 million or below 1.2 million would require either an unexpected late surge in absentee or Election Day turnout or a sharper-than-normal drop-off, neither of which materialized in comparable prior Texas Republican runoffs.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
交易量
$152,738结束日期
2026-05-26市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to 1.2–1.5 million votes in the May 26 Republican primary runoff because Texas GOP runoff participation has historically fallen 30–40 percent from the March primary, with roughly 2.2 million Republicans voting earlier this cycle. The Paxton–Cornyn contest, while high-profile, produced no evidence of unusually strong mobilization or crossover interest that would push totals outside this band. Early voting data and polling of likely runoff participants aligned with this range through late May. Outcomes above 1.5 million or below 1.2 million would require either an unexpected late surge in absentee or Election Day turnout or a sharper-than-normal drop-off, neither of which materialized in comparable prior Texas Republican runoffs.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
交易量
$152,738结束日期
2026-05-26市场开放时间
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to 1.2–1.5 million votes in the May 26 Republican primary runoff because Texas GOP runoff participation has historically fallen 30–40 percent from the March primary, with roughly 2.2 million Republicans voting earlier this cycle. The Paxton–Cornyn contest, while high-profile, produced no evidence of unusually strong mobilization or crossover interest that would push totals outside this band. Early voting data and polling of likely runoff participants aligned with this range through late May. Outcomes above 1.5 million or below 1.2 million would require either an unexpected late surge in absentee or Election Day turnout or a sharper-than-normal drop-off, neither of which materialized in comparable prior Texas Republican runoffs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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