Ongoing diplomatic channels and risk-management efforts between Washington and Beijing have sustained trader expectations that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027. Recent bilateral maritime military safety talks in Hawaii focused on preventing misunderstandings during force encounters, while leaders prepare for a potential summit and pursue trade stabilization. US defense planning emphasizes deterrence in the Indo-Pacific alongside ally contributions, and Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have remained largely gray-zone in nature without triggering direct confrontation. Both sides continue military modernization and exercises, yet verifiable developments show priority on managed competition rather than escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$121,506 交易量
$121,506 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$121,506 交易量
$121,506 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic channels and risk-management efforts between Washington and Beijing have sustained trader expectations that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027. Recent bilateral maritime military safety talks in Hawaii focused on preventing misunderstandings during force encounters, while leaders prepare for a potential summit and pursue trade stabilization. US defense planning emphasizes deterrence in the Indo-Pacific alongside ally contributions, and Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have remained largely gray-zone in nature without triggering direct confrontation. Both sides continue military modernization and exercises, yet verifiable developments show priority on managed competition rather than escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$121,506结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing diplomatic channels and risk-management efforts between Washington and Beijing have sustained trader expectations that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027. Recent bilateral maritime military safety talks in Hawaii focused on preventing misunderstandings during force encounters, while leaders prepare for a potential summit and pursue trade stabilization. US defense planning emphasizes deterrence in the Indo-Pacific alongside ally contributions, and Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have remained largely gray-zone in nature without triggering direct confrontation. Both sides continue military modernization and exercises, yet verifiable developments show priority on managed competition rather than escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$121,506结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic channels and risk-management efforts between Washington and Beijing have sustained trader expectations that no direct US-China military clash will occur before 2027. Recent bilateral maritime military safety talks in Hawaii focused on preventing misunderstandings during force encounters, while leaders prepare for a potential summit and pursue trade stabilization. US defense planning emphasizes deterrence in the Indo-Pacific alongside ally contributions, and Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have remained largely gray-zone in nature without triggering direct confrontation. Both sides continue military modernization and exercises, yet verifiable developments show priority on managed competition rather than escalation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题