China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, announced at the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader expectations and aligns closely with the 78% probability assigned to the 4.0-5.0% bracket. First-quarter 2026 data showed 5% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and supported by resilient exports and industrial output despite weak domestic demand and supply-chain pressures from regional conflicts. Major forecasters including the IMF at 4.4%, Asian Development Bank at 4.6%, and Goldman Sachs at 4.8% cluster within or near this range, reflecting continued fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan's focus on steady expansion. Structural challenges such as subdued consumption and the property sector's drag limit upside potential, while policy measures reduce downside risks below 4%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.0–5.0% 78%
5.0–6.0% 21.3%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
1.0–2.0% 1.1%
$684,870 交易量
$684,870 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
78%
5.0–6.0%
21%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 78%
5.0–6.0% 21.3%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
1.0–2.0% 1.1%
$684,870 交易量
$684,870 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
$50,638 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$71,439 交易量
1%
2.0–3.0%
$40,900 交易量
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$61,420 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$157,451 交易量
78%
5.0–6.0%
$63,320 交易量
21%
6.0-7.0%
$62,750 交易量
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$59,435 交易量
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$26,425 交易量
<1%
9.0%及以上
$91,092 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, announced at the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader expectations and aligns closely with the 78% probability assigned to the 4.0-5.0% bracket. First-quarter 2026 data showed 5% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and supported by resilient exports and industrial output despite weak domestic demand and supply-chain pressures from regional conflicts. Major forecasters including the IMF at 4.4%, Asian Development Bank at 4.6%, and Goldman Sachs at 4.8% cluster within or near this range, reflecting continued fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan's focus on steady expansion. Structural challenges such as subdued consumption and the property sector's drag limit upside potential, while policy measures reduce downside risks below 4%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$684,870结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, announced at the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader expectations and aligns closely with the 78% probability assigned to the 4.0-5.0% bracket. First-quarter 2026 data showed 5% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and supported by resilient exports and industrial output despite weak domestic demand and supply-chain pressures from regional conflicts. Major forecasters including the IMF at 4.4%, Asian Development Bank at 4.6%, and Goldman Sachs at 4.8% cluster within or near this range, reflecting continued fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan's focus on steady expansion. Structural challenges such as subdued consumption and the property sector's drag limit upside potential, while policy measures reduce downside risks below 4%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$684,870结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0%, announced at the National People's Congress in March, anchors trader expectations and aligns closely with the 78% probability assigned to the 4.0-5.0% bracket. First-quarter 2026 data showed 5% year-on-year expansion, exceeding forecasts and supported by resilient exports and industrial output despite weak domestic demand and supply-chain pressures from regional conflicts. Major forecasters including the IMF at 4.4%, Asian Development Bank at 4.6%, and Goldman Sachs at 4.8% cluster within or near this range, reflecting continued fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan's focus on steady expansion. Structural challenges such as subdued consumption and the property sector's drag limit upside potential, while policy measures reduce downside risks below 4%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题