Extensive monitoring by NASA and international asteroid surveys has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the market's 96.3% "No" consensus. Objects of the roughly 30–50 meter diameter needed for that yield are routinely detected years in advance through optical surveys and radar follow-up, with current catalogs showing none projected to intersect Earth's orbit next year. While undiscovered smaller bodies remain possible, their low probability of both detection evasion and precise 2026 timing reinforces trader confidence. Ongoing observations through 2026 could still identify new candidates, though historical completeness for this size range makes a surprise impact highly unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$108,392 交易量
$108,392 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$108,392 交易量
$108,392 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA and international asteroid surveys has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the market's 96.3% "No" consensus. Objects of the roughly 30–50 meter diameter needed for that yield are routinely detected years in advance through optical surveys and radar follow-up, with current catalogs showing none projected to intersect Earth's orbit next year. While undiscovered smaller bodies remain possible, their low probability of both detection evasion and precise 2026 timing reinforces trader confidence. Ongoing observations through 2026 could still identify new candidates, though historical completeness for this size range makes a surprise impact highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$108,392结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA and international asteroid surveys has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the market's 96.3% "No" consensus. Objects of the roughly 30–50 meter diameter needed for that yield are routinely detected years in advance through optical surveys and radar follow-up, with current catalogs showing none projected to intersect Earth's orbit next year. While undiscovered smaller bodies remain possible, their low probability of both detection evasion and precise 2026 timing reinforces trader confidence. Ongoing observations through 2026 could still identify new candidates, though historical completeness for this size range makes a surprise impact highly unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$108,392结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA and international asteroid surveys has identified no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact in 2026, driving the market's 96.3% "No" consensus. Objects of the roughly 30–50 meter diameter needed for that yield are routinely detected years in advance through optical surveys and radar follow-up, with current catalogs showing none projected to intersect Earth's orbit next year. While undiscovered smaller bodies remain possible, their low probability of both detection evasion and precise 2026 timing reinforces trader confidence. Ongoing observations through 2026 could still identify new candidates, though historical completeness for this size range makes a surprise impact highly unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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