The U.S. banking sector's resilience underpins the 92% market-implied probability against a failure by June 30. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and moderate funding risks across most institutions, with uninsured deposit reliance well below prior peaks. Year-to-date, only two small banks have failed—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia in early May—both due to firm-specific issues and resolved promptly by the FDIC through acquisitions. With no signs of systemic stress or major catalysts ahead in the compressed window, trader consensus reflects these contained conditions, though an isolated small-bank event tied to commercial real estate or credit deterioration remains a plausible, low-probability risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-06-30
最新
最新
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The U.S. banking sector's resilience underpins the 92% market-implied probability against a failure by June 30. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and moderate funding risks across most institutions, with uninsured deposit reliance well below prior peaks. Year-to-date, only two small banks have failed—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia in early May—both due to firm-specific issues and resolved promptly by the FDIC through acquisitions. With no signs of systemic stress or major catalysts ahead in the compressed window, trader consensus reflects these contained conditions, though an isolated small-bank event tied to commercial real estate or credit deterioration remains a plausible, low-probability risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ET
交易量
$4,190结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.The U.S. banking sector's resilience underpins the 92% market-implied probability against a failure by June 30. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and moderate funding risks across most institutions, with uninsured deposit reliance well below prior peaks. Year-to-date, only two small banks have failed—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia in early May—both due to firm-specific issues and resolved promptly by the FDIC through acquisitions. With no signs of systemic stress or major catalysts ahead in the compressed window, trader consensus reflects these contained conditions, though an isolated small-bank event tied to commercial real estate or credit deterioration remains a plausible, low-probability risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
交易量
$4,190结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. banking sector's resilience underpins the 92% market-implied probability against a failure by June 30. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report highlighted historically high regulatory capital ratios, ample liquidity buffers, and moderate funding risks across most institutions, with uninsured deposit reliance well below prior peaks. Year-to-date, only two small banks have failed—Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust in January and Community Bank and Trust – West Georgia in early May—both due to firm-specific issues and resolved promptly by the FDIC through acquisitions. With no signs of systemic stress or major catalysts ahead in the compressed window, trader consensus reflects these contained conditions, though an isolated small-bank event tied to commercial real estate or credit deterioration remains a plausible, low-probability risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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