The market-implied 94.6% probability of no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 reflects NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring, which show no known asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering that energy. Comprehensive surveys via the Sentry system confirm no significant impact risks through at least 2100 for objects in relevant size ranges. Recent 2026 fireball activity has featured only small events, such as the March 7-ton Ohio meteor, well below the threshold and consistent with normal atmospheric entries. While undiscovered near-Earth objects introduce residual uncertainty, the absence of detections in ongoing observations and the statistical rarity of such strikes—occurring roughly once per century or longer—underpin trader consensus. New large-object discoveries or orbital revisions remain the primary factors that could shift odds before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The market-implied 94.6% probability of no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 reflects NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring, which show no known asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering that energy. Comprehensive surveys via the Sentry system confirm no significant impact risks through at least 2100 for objects in relevant size ranges. Recent 2026 fireball activity has featured only small events, such as the March 7-ton Ohio meteor, well below the threshold and consistent with normal atmospheric entries. While undiscovered near-Earth objects introduce residual uncertainty, the absence of detections in ongoing observations and the statistical rarity of such strikes—occurring roughly once per century or longer—underpin trader consensus. New large-object discoveries or orbital revisions remain the primary factors that could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$7,869结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.The market-implied 94.6% probability of no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 reflects NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring, which show no known asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering that energy. Comprehensive surveys via the Sentry system confirm no significant impact risks through at least 2100 for objects in relevant size ranges. Recent 2026 fireball activity has featured only small events, such as the March 7-ton Ohio meteor, well below the threshold and consistent with normal atmospheric entries. While undiscovered near-Earth objects introduce residual uncertainty, the absence of detections in ongoing observations and the statistical rarity of such strikes—occurring roughly once per century or longer—underpin trader consensus. New large-object discoveries or orbital revisions remain the primary factors that could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$7,869结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied 94.6% probability of no 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026 reflects NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA monitoring, which show no known asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering that energy. Comprehensive surveys via the Sentry system confirm no significant impact risks through at least 2100 for objects in relevant size ranges. Recent 2026 fireball activity has featured only small events, such as the March 7-ton Ohio meteor, well below the threshold and consistent with normal atmospheric entries. While undiscovered near-Earth objects introduce residual uncertainty, the absence of detections in ongoing observations and the statistical rarity of such strikes—occurring roughly once per century or longer—underpin trader consensus. New large-object discoveries or orbital revisions remain the primary factors that could shift odds before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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