Recent softness in Q1 2026 GDP, revised to a 1.6% annualized pace, alongside moderating retail sales and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, has compressed near-term growth expectations and kept the 2.0–2.5% range narrowly ahead on Polymarket. Forecasters now project full-year 2026 expansion around 2.2%, reflecting tariff pass-through, higher headline inflation near 3.8% in Q2, and a cooling labor market that limits consumer spending even as AI-driven investment provides support. With outcomes clustered between 1.5% and 3.5%, trader positioning hinges on upcoming data releases including May employment figures, June CPI, and early Q2 indicators that could shift implied probabilities toward the lower or upper bins depending on whether the oil shock persists or eases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2.0–2.5% 25%
≥3.5% 23%
1.5–2.0% 20%
2.5–3.0% 20%
最新
最新
2026-07-30
<1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
5%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
25%
2.5–3.0%
20%
3.0–3.5%
19%
≥3.5%
16%
2.0–2.5% 25%
≥3.5% 23%
1.5–2.0% 20%
2.5–3.0% 20%
最新
最新
2026-07-30
<1.0%
$885 交易量
4%
1.0–1.5%
$577 交易量
5%
1.5–2.0%
$687 交易量
20%
2.0–2.5%
$1,074 交易量
25%
2.5–3.0%
$604 交易量
20%
3.0–3.5%
$831 交易量
19%
≥3.5%
$837 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent softness in Q1 2026 GDP, revised to a 1.6% annualized pace, alongside moderating retail sales and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, has compressed near-term growth expectations and kept the 2.0–2.5% range narrowly ahead on Polymarket. Forecasters now project full-year 2026 expansion around 2.2%, reflecting tariff pass-through, higher headline inflation near 3.8% in Q2, and a cooling labor market that limits consumer spending even as AI-driven investment provides support. With outcomes clustered between 1.5% and 3.5%, trader positioning hinges on upcoming data releases including May employment figures, June CPI, and early Q2 indicators that could shift implied probabilities toward the lower or upper bins depending on whether the oil shock persists or eases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
交易量
$5,495结束日期
2026-07-30市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent softness in Q1 2026 GDP, revised to a 1.6% annualized pace, alongside moderating retail sales and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, has compressed near-term growth expectations and kept the 2.0–2.5% range narrowly ahead on Polymarket. Forecasters now project full-year 2026 expansion around 2.2%, reflecting tariff pass-through, higher headline inflation near 3.8% in Q2, and a cooling labor market that limits consumer spending even as AI-driven investment provides support. With outcomes clustered between 1.5% and 3.5%, trader positioning hinges on upcoming data releases including May employment figures, June CPI, and early Q2 indicators that could shift implied probabilities toward the lower or upper bins depending on whether the oil shock persists or eases.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$5,495结束日期
2026-07-30市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent softness in Q1 2026 GDP, revised to a 1.6% annualized pace, alongside moderating retail sales and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions, has compressed near-term growth expectations and kept the 2.0–2.5% range narrowly ahead on Polymarket. Forecasters now project full-year 2026 expansion around 2.2%, reflecting tariff pass-through, higher headline inflation near 3.8% in Q2, and a cooling labor market that limits consumer spending even as AI-driven investment provides support. With outcomes clustered between 1.5% and 3.5%, trader positioning hinges on upcoming data releases including May employment figures, June CPI, and early Q2 indicators that could shift implied probabilities toward the lower or upper bins depending on whether the oil shock persists or eases.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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