Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s current 3.50-3.75% target range and recent communications favoring a hold amid sticky inflation. April 2026 CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, while core measures reached 2.8% and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. This data path, combined with resilient payroll growth, has kept market-implied rate expectations aligned with official guidance for steady policy. The June 16-17 meeting, which includes updated projections, represents the nearest catalyst; a sharper-than-expected May inflation print or abrupt labor-market softening could still introduce volatility ahead of the July decision.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 93%
加息25个基点 4.9%
降低25个基点 2.4%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$7,206,589 交易量
$7,206,589 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
1%
降低25个基点
2%
无变化
93%
加息25个基点
5%
上调50个基点以上
<1%
无变化 93%
加息25个基点 4.9%
降低25个基点 2.4%
降息50个基点及以上 <1%
$7,206,589 交易量
$7,206,589 交易量
2026-07-29
降息50个基点及以上
$921,037 交易量
1%
降低25个基点
$720,366 交易量
2%
无变化
$924,628 交易量
93%
加息25个基点
$3,743,471 交易量
5%
上调50个基点以上
$897,100 交易量
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s current 3.50-3.75% target range and recent communications favoring a hold amid sticky inflation. April 2026 CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, while core measures reached 2.8% and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. This data path, combined with resilient payroll growth, has kept market-implied rate expectations aligned with official guidance for steady policy. The June 16-17 meeting, which includes updated projections, represents the nearest catalyst; a sharper-than-expected May inflation print or abrupt labor-market softening could still introduce volatility ahead of the July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$7,206,589结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s current 3.50-3.75% target range and recent communications favoring a hold amid sticky inflation. April 2026 CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, while core measures reached 2.8% and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. This data path, combined with resilient payroll growth, has kept market-implied rate expectations aligned with official guidance for steady policy. The June 16-17 meeting, which includes updated projections, represents the nearest catalyst; a sharper-than-expected May inflation print or abrupt labor-market softening could still introduce volatility ahead of the July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$7,206,589结束日期
2026-07-29市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 92.5% implied probability to no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed’s current 3.50-3.75% target range and recent communications favoring a hold amid sticky inflation. April 2026 CPI rose to 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, while core measures reached 2.8% and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%. This data path, combined with resilient payroll growth, has kept market-implied rate expectations aligned with official guidance for steady policy. The June 16-17 meeting, which includes updated projections, represents the nearest catalyst; a sharper-than-expected May inflation print or abrupt labor-market softening could still introduce volatility ahead of the July decision.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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