Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices—has anchored trader consensus on the federal funds rate remaining unchanged at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with the target range holding at 3.50-3.75%. A resilient labor market, featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, supports the view that policy stays appropriately restrictive amid above-target core inflation near 2.8%. Futures markets imply minimal probability of near-term easing and assign roughly 30% odds to a hike by early 2027, contrasting earlier 2026 forecasts for cuts. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$155,012 交易量
2026-12-09
六月会议
1%
7月会议
6%
9月会议
11%
十月会议
24%
$155,012 交易量
六月会议
$16,328 交易量
1%
7月会议
$1,768 交易量
6%
9月会议
$3,063 交易量
11%
十月会议
$2,545 交易量
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices—has anchored trader consensus on the federal funds rate remaining unchanged at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with the target range holding at 3.50-3.75%. A resilient labor market, featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, supports the view that policy stays appropriately restrictive amid above-target core inflation near 2.8%. Futures markets imply minimal probability of near-term easing and assign roughly 30% odds to a hike by early 2027, contrasting earlier 2026 forecasts for cuts. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$155,012结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices—has anchored trader consensus on the federal funds rate remaining unchanged at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with the target range holding at 3.50-3.75%. A resilient labor market, featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, supports the view that policy stays appropriately restrictive amid above-target core inflation near 2.8%. Futures markets imply minimal probability of near-term easing and assign roughly 30% odds to a hike by early 2027, contrasting earlier 2026 forecasts for cuts. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$155,012结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2023, fueled by a 17.9% surge in energy prices—has anchored trader consensus on the federal funds rate remaining unchanged at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, with the target range holding at 3.50-3.75%. A resilient labor market, featuring steady payrolls and 4.3% unemployment, supports the view that policy stays appropriately restrictive amid above-target core inflation near 2.8%. Futures markets imply minimal probability of near-term easing and assign roughly 30% odds to a hike by early 2027, contrasting earlier 2026 forecasts for cuts. The May CPI release on June 10 and updated Summary of Economic Projections at the June meeting represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the market-implied rate path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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