Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations have produced a preliminary memorandum extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching a 60-day period to address Iran's nuclear program, including its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Trader consensus at 51.5% on "Yes" reflects this diplomatic momentum alongside persistent gaps, as Iran maintains enrichment on its soil as a red line while U.S. positions emphasize limits or a regional consortium model under IAEA oversight. Recent reports indicate verbal commitments on stockpile disposition but defer detailed enrichment curbs to follow-on talks, with verification challenges and Supreme Leader approval adding uncertainty. Further progress in the negotiation window or Iranian concessions on domestic enrichment could shift probabilities higher, while stalled talks or renewed demands for full dismantlement could pull them lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$464,347 交易量
$464,347 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$464,347 交易量
$464,347 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations have produced a preliminary memorandum extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching a 60-day period to address Iran's nuclear program, including its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Trader consensus at 51.5% on "Yes" reflects this diplomatic momentum alongside persistent gaps, as Iran maintains enrichment on its soil as a red line while U.S. positions emphasize limits or a regional consortium model under IAEA oversight. Recent reports indicate verbal commitments on stockpile disposition but defer detailed enrichment curbs to follow-on talks, with verification challenges and Supreme Leader approval adding uncertainty. Further progress in the negotiation window or Iranian concessions on domestic enrichment could shift probabilities higher, while stalled talks or renewed demands for full dismantlement could pull them lower.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
交易量
$464,347结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations have produced a preliminary memorandum extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching a 60-day period to address Iran's nuclear program, including its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Trader consensus at 51.5% on "Yes" reflects this diplomatic momentum alongside persistent gaps, as Iran maintains enrichment on its soil as a red line while U.S. positions emphasize limits or a regional consortium model under IAEA oversight. Recent reports indicate verbal commitments on stockpile disposition but defer detailed enrichment curbs to follow-on talks, with verification challenges and Supreme Leader approval adding uncertainty. Further progress in the negotiation window or Iranian concessions on domestic enrichment could shift probabilities higher, while stalled talks or renewed demands for full dismantlement could pull them lower.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$464,347结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations have produced a preliminary memorandum extending a ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching a 60-day period to address Iran's nuclear program, including its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Trader consensus at 51.5% on "Yes" reflects this diplomatic momentum alongside persistent gaps, as Iran maintains enrichment on its soil as a red line while U.S. positions emphasize limits or a regional consortium model under IAEA oversight. Recent reports indicate verbal commitments on stockpile disposition but defer detailed enrichment curbs to follow-on talks, with verification challenges and Supreme Leader approval adding uncertainty. Further progress in the negotiation window or Iranian concessions on domestic enrichment could shift probabilities higher, while stalled talks or renewed demands for full dismantlement could pull them lower.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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