US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 on facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure and stockpiles, extending intelligence estimates of the time required to produce a nuclear weapon to roughly nine to twelve months as of early 2026. IAEA reports through February 2026 highlight unresolved safeguards issues, unverifiable stockpile locations, and limited enrichment activity, while ongoing Vienna talks and US diplomatic engagement underscore continued barriers to rapid reconstitution. These verified setbacks, combined with Iran's compliance challenges and external pressures, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear device remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$632,940 交易量
$632,940 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$632,940 交易量
$632,940 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 on facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure and stockpiles, extending intelligence estimates of the time required to produce a nuclear weapon to roughly nine to twelve months as of early 2026. IAEA reports through February 2026 highlight unresolved safeguards issues, unverifiable stockpile locations, and limited enrichment activity, while ongoing Vienna talks and US diplomatic engagement underscore continued barriers to rapid reconstitution. These verified setbacks, combined with Iran's compliance challenges and external pressures, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear device remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
交易量
$632,940结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 on facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure and stockpiles, extending intelligence estimates of the time required to produce a nuclear weapon to roughly nine to twelve months as of early 2026. IAEA reports through February 2026 highlight unresolved safeguards issues, unverifiable stockpile locations, and limited enrichment activity, while ongoing Vienna talks and US diplomatic engagement underscore continued barriers to rapid reconstitution. These verified setbacks, combined with Iran's compliance challenges and external pressures, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear device remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$632,940结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 on facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan damaged Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure and stockpiles, extending intelligence estimates of the time required to produce a nuclear weapon to roughly nine to twelve months as of early 2026. IAEA reports through February 2026 highlight unresolved safeguards issues, unverifiable stockpile locations, and limited enrichment activity, while ongoing Vienna talks and US diplomatic engagement underscore continued barriers to rapid reconstitution. These verified setbacks, combined with Iran's compliance challenges and external pressures, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear device remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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