Robert Kenyon leads the market for second place in the Makerfield by-election at 71.5% because Reform UK has established a strong local base in the constituency, where generic voting intention polls show the party ahead of Labour. Kenyon, a local plumber who stood in 2024, benefits from this momentum and the compressed campaign timeline ahead of the 18 June vote. Andy Burnham’s selection as Labour candidate has consolidated support for the party but leaves Reform as the clearest challenger in a seat long held by Labour until the recent resignation. Recent constituency polling places Burnham narrowly ahead on named candidates while confirming Kenyon’s position as the primary alternative, with all other contenders trailing significantly. Trader consensus reflects these structural dynamics and the limited time for smaller parties or independents to close the gap before polling day.