Following Labour's substantial losses in the May 2026 local and devolved elections, around 80-90 MPs publicly urged Keir Starmer to resign or announce a departure timetable, prompting cabinet resignations including Health Secretary Wes Streeting. This internal pressure has kept open the possibility of a formal leadership contest, which under party rules requires nominations from 20 percent of MPs before the National Executive Committee can schedule a ballot. Traders assign a 55 percent probability to an election being scheduled by June 30, reflecting uncertainty over whether the Makerfield by-election on June 18 will strengthen potential challengers such as Andy Burnham enough to meet the threshold. Starmer has rejected calls to step aside and retains support from a significant bloc of MPs, leaving the near-term outcome dependent on further parliamentary maneuvering and by-election results.